Knee-Jerking: College football win totals for 2017
CG Technology released its 2017 college football win totals late last week. I’m looking for my five favorite plays from this year's group, which I'll write up in the next day or so. Before that, a few observations about what can be gleaned from these numbers:
*In case you’re not familiar with how these work, the totals refer to how many games a team will win in 2017 – bowl games and conference championship games do not count. If a team’s total ends in a half number, there is no push.
If one side of the bet has a negative number, that indicates you have to pay that much to win $100 (-110 means a $110 bet wins $100). The side of the bet with a positive number shows what a $100 bet would pay (+120 means a bet of $100 pays $120).
*Generally speaking, future bets suck.
*Oklahoma comes in at 9.5 with the juice heavily tilted to the over at -145. I haven’t actually put my numbers together for OU’s schedule, but that sounds in line with what I expect – close to 10.
*I could be wrong, but these totals strike me as lower than we usually see at this time of year. CG only posted double-digit totals for two teams, Alabama and Florida State. That might suggest Vegas is forecasting more parity than usual this season.
*Looking at the totals and odds, we can infer that the oddsmakers see Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma and USC as the most likely College Football Playoff participants. The next tier includes Florida State and, surprisingly, Wisconsin. Then Washington and Penn State.
*Oklahoma State has the second-highest total in the Big 12 behind the Sooners. If that holds, we’re probably getting a Bedlam rematch in the reanimated Big 12 title game.
*Speaking of which, other projected conference championship games:
- ACC: Florida State vs. Virginia Tech
- Pac-12: USC vs. Washington
- SEC: Alabama vs. Florida
- Big Ten: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
*A few potential hot seats:
- Arizona is -115 to get over 5.5.
- UCLA and Nebraska are sitting at 6.
- Texas Tech is shaded towards missing a bowl game again (under 6 at -120).