Blatant Homerism: Buy the ticket, take the ride
Before the season started, my film-loving friend Carter Bryant warned me that the Oklahoma Sooners’ incoming quarterback, John Mateer, would undoubtedly throw OU out of a game this season. He was correct. Unfortunately, that game was this season’s Red River Shootout.
You could argue that the version of Mateer who took the field on Saturday was rusty and/or impaired by the hand surgery he went through 17 days prior. But the offense’s identity hadn’t changed. OU was playing the same brand of hero ball we saw in Mateer’s first four starts.
As Mateer’s mistakes piled up over the course of four quarters, the good guys had no shot of beating the Texas Longhorns. Texas had the ability to exploit Mateer’s mistakes in ways that prior opponents could not; conversely, Mateer could do things against other teams that he could not do versus the Longhorns.
Mateer plays with an overwhelming sense of self-confidence, verging on hubris. It fuels his ability to make audacious plays and occasionally drag his team to victory. On the other hand, performances like the one he gave versus UT illustrate the downside risks that come with his relentless hero ball.
Frankly, given OU’s lack of a conventional running game, the Sooners need Mateer to play the way he does. Although Mateer’s errors were the proximate cause of OU’s loss to Texas, those mistakes happened because Mateer’s approach gives the Sooners their best chance at success this year. You have to accept that your QB will have the occasional howler because the strategy all but demands it.
None of that means Mateer can’t learn from his mistakes – hero ball practitioner Baker Mayfield had similar problems early in his career at OU, and he turned out fine. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle can obviously adapt his teaching points and game plans to best harness what his QB does well. That involves tweaking what OU is already doing, not flushing it.
OU signed up for the Mateer experience when he joined the Sooners in the offseason. You leverage the highs and try to mitigate the lows. In the words of Hunter S. Thompson, buy the ticket, take the ride.
Second-half outlook
No one wants to hear this so soon after losing a big rivalry game, but a 5-1 record at this point in the season falls on the more encouraging side of realistic expectations for this OU team. (Imagine how different the mood among fans would be if the Sooners had lost to Michigan and beaten Texas.)
What about the second half of the schedule?
The Texas game almost certainly won’t be the only loss the Sooners take this season. The remaining six games on the schedule look daunting – OU could drop any of them. The team used up all of its guaranteed wins in the first half of the year.
Yet, none of the remaining contests looks like a guaranteed loss, either. As of right now, OU will probably go off as a small favorite in four of its final six games (at South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU). In the other two, the Sooners will probably be getting no more than a touchdown (at Tennessee and at Alabama).
The upshot: If the current levels of performance by OU and its opponents hold up, the Sooners are projected to win about 3.5 of their final six games. That would give OU a final regular season record of 8-4 or 9-3.
If you’re looking for reasons for why the Sooners might land on the better side of projections the rest of the way, note that two of OU’s opponents – Mizzou and Tennessee – are trending down recently. To be fair, you could say the same about OU, although Mateer’s status in the last three contests muddies any conclusions that can be drawn from those games.
Chaos reigns
If you look at Bill Connelly’s most recent SP+ rankings, his model currently finds projects about a touchdown gap in team strength between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 15 Miami. At this same point in the season a year earlier, there were only six teams modeled within a touchdown of the top-rated squad. In 2021, there were three.
Moreover, SP+ puts the difference between Ohio State and No. 25 Iowa right now at 12 points. During the year-earlier period, the gap was modeled at 17.5 points.
Many signs – from analytics to the actual results on the field – point to growing parity in college football in the power conferences. (You could even limit that statement to the Big Ten and SEC, which account for 19 of the 25 teams in SP+.) I have my doubts that we’re preparing for a sea change when it comes to the teams winning the national championship. However, the rising volatility of results during the regular season now seems inarguable.
Regarding the SEC, SP+ has nine teams within three points of Texas A&M, which it rates as the strongest squad in the conference. So when OU head coach Brent Venables characterizes the SEC as a “one-score league” now, he’s speaking the truth.
Start studying up on the minutiae of SEC tiebreaker rules, in other words.
Other Games on My Radar
With the Sooners kicking off in the early time slot on Saturday, it will leave plenty of openings for catching big games across the country later in the day.
LSU at Vanderbilt
The Commodores are favored over LSU? My goodness.
Texas A&M at Arkansas
The Aggies should handle the Razorbacks on Saturday, but since when are they known for doing what they should?
Ole Miss at Georgia
The Bulldogs look all sorts of wobbly right now. Don’t know if the Rebels are positioned to take advantage of it, though.
USC at Notre Dame
The Trojans are acting awfully shady about playing this game in the future – and other things. Wonder where they get that?
Missouri at Auburn
I’m honestly amazed by Auburn’s ability to get off the mat every week and get their hopes crushed in the cruelest fashions. What kind of heartbreak awaits on the Plains this week?