Blatant Homerism: Details, details
A few weeks ago, I advised fans of the Oklahoma Sooners that they would have to “buy the ticket and take the ride” on the John Mateer Experience. After last Saturday’s 34-26 loss to the Ole Miss Rebels, many may want off.
Mateer had a horrendous day against the Rebs. Even though he avoided the interceptions that plagued him in OU’s previous loss to the Texas Longhorns, he still made a slew of befuddlingly poor decisions and throws throughout the contest.
My co-host Brady Trantham published a piece this week for SI.com detailing some common threads running through a laundry list of losses sustained by the Oklahoma Sooners since Brent Venables took over for the 2022 season. They include examples of problems with the “details” – struggles on both sides of the ball on third down, ill-timed penalties, giving up big gains on key downs. All seemed relevant in the loss to Ole Miss.
But there’s a simpler explanation for what happened against the Rebels: OU’s offense didn’t perform well because the quarterback faltered. To be sure, teams overcome poor QB play every week to win in college football. They rarely pull it off against teams of Ole Miss’ caliber, though.
More importantly, this version of OU’s offense relies on good QB play to click. If Mateer isn’t making good decisions, the entire operation falls apart.
It may seem unfair to put that much weight on Mateer’s shoulders, but it’s reality. The Sooners will have a hard time winning with QB play so erratic.
I’m not trying to dump on Mateer in raising this point. I am trying to identify root issues that OU can – or should – address.
If you pull out any series of games for a team over a given span of time, you can find common threads or themes to support any conclusion you want to make about the results. But there’s really no rhyme or reason to any of it. To borrow a term from statistics, the outcome of a football game reflects a series of dependent events stacked up on each other. When every single thing that happens in a given game influences what happens next, it can lead to fanciful projections about the course of events that led to the outcome.
For example, the ability of the Ole Miss offense to convert on third and fourth down played an instrumental role in the Rebels putting up points and dominating time of possession versus the Sooners. The Rebels got first downs on 9-of-21 attempts on third down, and they also hit on two of three tries on fourth down.
You could argue that in a one-score contest, even one more stop by the OU defense on third or fourth down could have changed the entire complexion of the game. Ergo, the Sooners’ inability to get off the field on money downs more often helped sink their chances of winning.
However, teams with good offenses convert third downs at higher rates… because the offenses are good. Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the country, which helps explain why they rank 15th nationally in third-down conversion percentage. In fact, given that the Rebs have achieved first downs on 52% of their third-down attempts against all other opponents, their 43% success rate on third down versus OU could go down as a minor win for the Sooners.
An alternative explanation for Ole Miss’ control of time of possession and the scoreboard: Mateer’s performance. It played a large role in the OU offense’s poor conversion rate on third down (4-of-14 attempts, 29% success rate) and fourth down (1-of-3). If OU had maintained possession of the ball more across the game, Ole Miss’ high-powered offense would have been sitting on the sidelines longer. Instead, the Rebels got enough cracks on O to put the game out of OU’s reach.
The point here isn’t that the things on the margins identified as throughlines in OU’s losses under Venables don’t matter. They clearly do, especially when the Sooners are taking on teams equally strong or superior to them.
But they matter more or less depending on how well a team is executing in the core facets of the game on offense, defense and special teams. The OU offense has sputtered often in two of its last three games, owing largely to Mateer’s struggles. Getting OU’s QB gets back on track will ultimately determine the Sooners’ fate in the final four games of the season more than anything that can be done about the details.
Other Games I’m Watching This Weekend
A week that looked like a blockbuster before the season has lost a little sizzle.
Vanderbilt at Texas
The Longhorns inexplicably managed to survive the last two weeks on the road against the dregs of the SEC. Those kinds of performances will eventually catch up with them in the final month of the season. The Commodores have given the college football world a nice story, but losing this game somehow feels consistent with the run UT is on.
Navy at North Texas
The champion of the American seems likely to earn a bid to the College Football Playoff, and the winner of this game will take a significant step towards a shot at the league title. Note that the Mean Green stumbled badly the last time they had a high-profile game, a 27-point loss to South Florida.
Georgia vs. Florida
Even in the wake of their coach getting fired, the Gators seem like the kind of squad that could give the Bulldogs problems. The World’s Largest Responsible Drinking Party Shootout?
Kentucky at Auburn
Loser leaves town? (Technically, Mark Stoops will be leaving town no matter what after this game, as he does not live in Auburn, Alabama.)