Blatant Homerism: Red River scatter shooting
As rivalry games in college football go, the Red River Shootout between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns is one of the wildest. In the last 11 of their annual meetings in the Cotton Bowl, nine games have been decided by one score. Oddsmakers apparently see little difference between the two squads again this year, indicating there’s another tight game in store on Saturday.
In some ways, the likelihood of the 2025 Red River game being close has to feel deflating for the Longhorns and their fans. Since OU hired Brent Venables as head coach in 2022, UT has taken two of the last three games. They’ve done so by a combined score in the two victories of 83-3. Coming into the season, a consensus formed that the preseason No. 1 Horns would have the upper hand again this year: Initially, major betting operators favored UT in the game by 11.5 points. Now, the news that quarterback John Mateer is probable to play in the contest has made OU a slight favorite.
With all of that in mind, let’s cram some scattershot observations about this year’s matchup into a column.
Battle-tested
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has a point when he noted that few teams could travel to Ohio State and Florida in the first five games of the season and survive unscathed. The Buckeyes are playing like the best team in the country, and UT had the misfortune of catching the Gators at the Swamp at the same time manchild receiver Dallas Wilson returned to the UF lineup. The Horns probably didn’t expect to come into this game with a 3-2 record, but losing to those particular opponents doesn’t equal an indictment of the program.
In fact, the Sooners would likely have done just as well in those circumstances, which explains in part why this matchup looks close to even. From an emotional standpoint, though, you could make the case that a worse-than-expected start only raises the stakes for Texas in this edition of the Red River game. Moreover, the fact that the Longhorns have faced two stress tests on the road so far this year makes it hard to believe this moment will prove too big for them.
Manning midness
The story of the ‘25 Texas team has to start with QB Arch Manning.
Based on what I saw from Manning in his only starts of 2024 versus Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State, he looked… fine? You could understand why all the recruiting services were betting long on his future, but his play then didn’t fit with the forthcoming talk that Manning was preparing to take the sport by storm. He definitely seemed like a blue-chip talent – that is still a far cry from the best QB prospect in a decade. (Steve Spurrier had a point when he noted that Manning failing to unseat Quinn Ewers over two years should have told us something.)
Relative to inflated expectations, Manning and Texas have flopped through five games. That’s not a #qbwinz assessment or a case of just judging him by the box score. Manning has missed too many throws and done so in every way imaginable – high, low, overthrow, underthrow. And he’s frequently holding the ball too long in the pocket, magnifying the Horns’ protection issues on the offensive line.
Manning still has plenty of runway in front of him to fulfill his promise. He could write his name in Texas lore by putting everything together Saturday versus OU. At this point, though, Sarkisian would likely live with his QB settling down. The Horns don’t need a frazzled version of Manning running the O.
An elite defense?
Florida’s ability to move the ball by land and by air last week poked a few holes in the reputation of the Texas defense. Frankly, there was probably some fools’ gold in the performance of the D against Ohio State, too, an outing that helped solidify the perception the unit hadn’t lost a step from a year ago.
The Buckeyes had miserable field position throughout their game in week one against UT. On average, they started their drives on their own 21 yard line, which is about nine yards short of the national median. Here are the yard lines where the Buckeyes started their possessions, in order: 42, 8, 20, 2, 3, 25, 1, 32, 9, 25, 47. Five of Ohio State’s 11 drives began inside their own 10 yard line, and its best field position of the day came on the possession in which QB Julian Sayin kneeled out the clock.
Given that the OSU defense had put the Longhorns O in a vice grip, Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day wasn’t looking to open up the playbook with a young QB when his team had the ball deep in its own territory.
Factoring that context into Texas’ body of work might knock our evaluation of the quality of its defense down a notch or so. The defensive tackles have likely taken a step back in the last year. The members of the secondary are missing some of the physicality and athleticism the unit possessed in 2024.
So maybe not an elite defense. Nevertheless, with coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski calling the shots, it still remains a force to be reckoned with.
The strength of the Texas offense is…
Tough to say. UT just doesn’t rate well on that side of the ball. The Longhorns do generate an outsized number of explosive plays, so let’s go with that.
Per Bill Connelly’s efficiency metrics, Texas ranks 26th nationally in marginal explosiveness and 34th in yards per successful play at 13.1. The Horns have a knack for hitting big plays on standard downs, where they rank 24th overall in marginal explosiveness. These big gains come almost exclusively through the air, with nearly a quarter of UT’s completions producing gains of at least 20 yards. According to PFF, Manning’s average depth of target (aDoT) of 11.9 yards ranks among the highest in the country.
Texas’ game against Florida illustrated the delicate line its offense is walking by relying heavily on the long ball. UT threw for a total of 289 yards, completing 17-of-32 attempts with two touchdowns and two interceptions. In other words, when the Longhorns completed a pass, it generated an average of 17 yards. All three of their scoring drives included at least one downfield throw that gained a minimum of 33 yards. PFF put Manning’s aDoT at 20.2 yards for the game.
Conversely, the lack of shorter routes and quick passing in the game plan left Manning susceptible to the UF pass rush. The Gators routinely touched up Manning in passing situations, which affected him even when he got his throws off. For the game, they sacked him six times for combined losses of 37 yards.
Uneducated speculation
What do we know about the Longhorns on offense?
They don’t run the ball well;
They thrive on throwing deep;
The OL isn’t good;
That gives Venables a few different approaches on defense to match UT’s strengths and weaknesses, like playing three high safeties. Here’s one example from the OU-Auburn game of how that alignment might look :
OU’s three down linemen have set themselves up in what looks like a Tite front with defensive tackle Damonic Williams (No. 52) in a zero technique in the middle across from the center. DT Jayden Jackson (No. 65) has shifted to 4i, lining up on the inside shoulder of the left tackle. The same goes for defensive end PJ Adebawore (No. 34) on the opposite side. DE Taylor Wein (No. 44) lines up like a Jack linebacker in the bubble to the outside of the left tackle.
At linebacker on the second level, Mike LB Sammy Omisigho (No. 7) aligns to the passing strength of the formation, mirroring the tight end on the right side of the offensive line. Will LB Owen Heinecke (No. 38) takes the bubble between the nose tackle and DE on the weak side of the formation.
On the third level, Cheetah Kendal Daniels (No. 5, circled) is taking on the safety part of his position’s hybrid responsibilities. He lines up at safety depth across from Auburn’s inside receiver to the strong side of the offensive formation. That leaves Peyton Bowen (No. 22) as the middle safety and Robert Spears-Jennings (No. 3) playing the free/weak safety spot. In this particular call:
RSJ plays a deep third to help cornerback Courtland Guillory (No. 4) over the top with beastly Auburn receiver Cam Coleman;
Bowen takes the Auburn tight end in man coverage; and
Daniels has man coverage on Auburn’s inside receiver, Malcolm Simmons.
Venables can play around with the coverages from this look, especially if he’s looking to avoid situations such as Daniels covering a slot one-on-one. For example, the strong and weak safeties dropped back into a two-high shell out of the same alignment later in the game.
Venables could also run the three-safety scheme with better coverage personnel. That might entail shifting Daniels down to the Jack LB and replacing him with a true safety like Reggie Powers. Another option: Keep four DLs on the field and sub in Kendel Dolby for Daniels at Cheetah/strong safety.
Final thoughts
OU hasn’t benefited from many breaks in scheduling in the last two years, but the Sooners got some good fortune with how this particular game fell on the calendar. Between an open date and a game against Kent State last week, the OU coaching staff essentially had three weeks to prepare for this matchup. Conversely, after taking their team to visit Florida on Saturday, Sarkisian and his brain trust haven’t had much cushion to draw up – let alone install – new wrinkles for the Sooners. And Texas desperately needs some new tricks for an offense that currently ranks 53rd overall in Offensive SP+.
That said, OU’s offense has stumbled around enough through the team’s first five contests to suggest UT will, at minimum, stay in the game until the final gun. In addition to a pedestrian OL, the Sooners are noticeably lacking difference makers at the offensive skill positions to create dilemmas for Kwiatkowski and the Longhorns defense. Not a great time for uncertainty at QB for OU, whether Mateer plays or not.
More so than usual, OU needs its defense and special teams to come through by generating their own points or setting the offense up for easy scores. Buckle up.