Blatant Homerism: It's all been said before about Oklahoma and Alabama
With the College Football Playoff clash between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners looming, I don’t know how much new insight can be offered about a matchup we saw a little more than a month ago.
Depending on who you ask, the story of Sooners’ 23-21 win was timely defense on OU’s part or Bama shooting itself in the foot. The truth about that game doesn’t matter that much now. The Sooners can’t rely a second time on taking a path to victory that involves plus-three turnover margin and a defensive touchdown.
But if that road to a W is closed for OU, have any others opened up?
We don’t have to play the “[insert losing team] should have won” game to recognize that teams rarely win with a disparity in offensive production as sizable as the one between the Sooners and Tide in round one. Bama had nearly twice as many first downs as OU – 23 to 12 – and nearly doubled up the Sooners in total yardage at 406 to 212. The Tide also had an edge of nine minutes in time of possession.
What stands out more than Bama’s offensive output from the first time around is the lack thereof from OU. Excluding sacks, the Sooners rushed for a putrid 88 yards on 26 attempts, which works out to about 3.4 yards per carry. Quarterback John Mateer put the ball in the air just 23 times, completing 15 passes for 138 yards, with no TDs or interceptions – scintillating.
This time around, three integral parts of OU’s offensive attack have enjoyed an extended period off to recuperate from lingering injuries. Mateer’s hand issue has gained plenty of national attention, but a leg injury has also hindered him from early in the season. Meanwhile, running backs Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock played on pitch counts in the second half of the year to manage their workloads.
None of the three will be operating at 100% against the Tide, but they should be as fresh as they have been since earlier in the year. Will that make up for the potential – or likely? – absence of center Jake Maikkula, who has been recovering from an infection since before the final game of the regular season? Of course, Bama was privy to the services of defensive lineman LT Overton in the first game, and he is now out for the remainder of the year.
Lots of injury-related variables, in other words. However, the status of Mateer, Robinson and Blaylock offer modest reason for hope.
The showing by the OU defense the first time these teams met solidified the unit’s standing as one of the top units in the country. Frankly, the Sooners still have room for improvement. Most notably, the Tide generated nearly eight yards per pass on quarterback Ty Simpson’s 42 throws.
On the one hand, the fact that Simpson had to put the ball in the air that many times speaks to the quality of OU’s performance. Bama had little room to maneuver on the ground, rushing for a sacks-excluded average of 3.7 yards per attempt. That gave the Tide little choice but to air it out. (Not to mention, if you take away the 28 yards lost on four sacks from Simpson’s passing yardage, he averaged 6.5 yards per throw.)
One key question hanging over the matchup between the Bama O and OU D: Can standout defensive end R Mason Thomas impact the game? The star edge rusher went down with a leg injury in the first half of OU’s win over Tennessee and missed the last three games of the regular season. It sounds like he has been cleared for action on Friday night, although how much action is not clear.
OU head coach and defensive coordinator Brent Venables doesn’t need RMT playing at full strength to make life miserable for Simpson and the rest of the Bama offense. The Sooners managed just fine without him the first time the two teams met.
However, adding another weapon to the arsenal does give OU’s defensive braintrust another option for creating chaos at the line of scrimmage. Pressure packages, for example, might look different if Venables is confident Thomas can win one-on-one matchups on the edge of the offensive line. After the way game one went, Simpson certainly doesn’t want to deal with yet another variable to process when he drops back.
All the being said, this game could ultimately come down to complacency. As in, which team is feeling it?
OU already beat this team this year, and the Sooners did it in Tuscaloosa. They get to play the Tide in the friendly confines of their own stadium now. That could lay some seeds of overconfidence in OU’s locker room and coaches’ offices.
Meanwhile, Bama has lived for a month with the knowledge that it lost the first time around in a game “it should have won.” Do the Tide just need to execute better on Friday to advance to the next round, or do they need a new game plan from Bama head coach Kalen DeBoer? (Whose name keeps coming up in connection with the opening for a new head coach at Michigan.)
In reality, neither team should feel confident that it can win this game if the second edition plays out in similar fashion to their first meeting. The outcome this time will most likely hinge on which team changes the story with a new wrinkle.
College Football Playoff predictions
Opening round
Oklahoma over Alabama
Miami over Texas A&M
Ole Miss over Tulane
Oregon over James Madison
Quarterfinals
Oklahoma over Indiana
Ohio State over Miami
Georgia over Ole Miss
Oregon over Texas Tech
Semifinals
Oregon over Oklahoma
Ohio State over Georgia
Finals
Ohio State over Oregon