Blatant Homerism: The Jackson Arnold question
“Is it really possible that everyone whiffed on this guy that badly?”
Chris Fallica of FOX Sports posed that question to me a few weeks ago about Jackson Arnold. (That was during one of the Through the Keyhole Patreon podcast episodes, which you should sign up for if you haven’t already.) I’ve been giving it a lot of thought, too, as the start of the season of the college football continues to creep up.
The answer matters a great deal to fans of the Auburn Tigers, who find their hopes for the upcoming season hinging in large part on the success of the transfer quarterback who helmed the Oklahoma Sooners in 2024. It should also matter to the Sooners.
Arnold was one of the most coveted high school QBs in the country when he signed with the Sooners in 2023. You could probably count on one hand the number of programs that liked the QBs they landed in that recruiting class better than Arnold, who received a five-star grade from all the major recruiting services. He was preordained as OU’s starting QB in ‘24 from the minute he set foot on campus.
Consensus wisdom held that after Arnold spent the ‘23 season as the understudy to Dillon Gabriel, the Sooners were turning the job over to a far more talented field general who would raise the ceiling on what the offense could accomplish. Instead, OU rolled out one of the least threatening attacks in school history. Concerns about Arnold’s play behind center surfaced almost immediately, and he found himself riding the pine by midseason. He only reclaimed the starting position a few games later after true freshman Michael Hawkins proved not ready for primetime. Even after his midseason sabbatical, Arnold showed little improvement as he finished out the regular season.
Ironically, Arnold and OU head coach Brent Venables seem to differ on where fault lies for the QB’s disastrous campaign in ‘24. At SEC media days this week, Arnold pointed the finger back at himself. Venables, for his part, admitted that both Arnold and Hawkins had no chance to succeed as the Sooners slogged through a season filled with crushing injuries on both the offensive line and at wide receiver.
Frankly, Venables’ own decisions about how to manage his program didn’t put the QBs in position to succeed, either. It started with elevating Seth Littrell from an analyst role to offensive coordinator once Jeff Lebby left at the end of the ‘23 season. Perhaps Venables believed it would be best for Arnold’s development to maintain continuity on the coaching staff, but Littrell demonstrated little capacity for assembling a functional offense. Venables sacked Littrell at midseason, but the O only looked marginally better in spurts with tight ends coach Joe Jon Finley calling the shots on an interim basis.
To top it all off, OU didn’t have a dedicated quarterbacks coach on the staff, so it seems fair to question the level of instruction Arnold received individually.
Despite the disaster that was Arnold’s performance in ‘24, no one can question his tools as a QB. He runs extremely well. The ball looks great coming out of his hand when he lets it rip. His accuracy isn’t all-world, but it’s not really a problem, either. He’s big enough to survive the grind of being a dual-threat QB in the SEC.
In that sense, you can see why Auburn coach Hugh Freeze would get enticed by the proposition of trying to fix Arnold.
Yet, everything about Arnold last year – from his decisions to his demeanor – screamed that he was in over his head. Most notably, he was indecisive when staring down opportunities for big gains through the air and shockingly decisive when throwing the ball to the wrong team. His penchant for coughing up the ball – with and without contact from opposing defenders – betrayed a serious case of the jitters.
The chances of Arnold living up to the promise of his skill set seem remote after watching him bumble though the ‘24 campaign. If, however, Freeze and his staff turn Arnold into a passable QB, the Tigers could greatly exceed their expectations this fall. And if Arnold is truly good with a year under the tutelage of Freeze, Auburn has the look of a dark horse in the SEC.
Meanwhile, Venables would have some massive questions to answer about his fitness as a head coach in the event Arnold excels. That’s very much a hypothetical at this point, but it could absolutely seal his fate at OU.
Blue-chip special
Bud Elliott of 247 Sports published his annual Blue-Chip Ratio article this week, and the Sooners have a spot on the list yet again.
As a reminder, the BCR essentially serves as a screen for identifying teams capable of winning a national championship. The story goes that at least half of a team’s signees out of high school and junior college in the previous four recruiting classes must rank as four- and five-star prospects to consider that team a legitimate contender for the national title. It does not account for factors such as attrition and incoming transfers – it’s a blunt instrument.
OU’s BCR of 70% may come as a surprise to some, especially considering that the Sooners have amassed a combined record of 22-17 in the last three years. Landing blue-chip recruits hasn’t proven that difficult for Venables and his staff, however:
2025 = 12 blue-chip recruits out of 18 total enrollees
2024 = 19/28
2023 = 16/25
2022 = 17/22
That works out 64 blue-chip recruits out of 93 enrollees in four years at OU, which equates to a BCR of roughly 70%.
How can we explain the disconnect between talent and results in Norman in the past three years? The glaring answer is that Lincoln Riley’s final signing class at OU in 2021 turned out poorly for the Sooners. For starters, it was small: Landing 13 blue-chip recruits in the group is great, but landing only 16 players is not. Moreover, 12 of the 16 signees transferred away from Norman with eligibility remaining, and five of them dipped out before Venables even coached a game in Norman.
But the ‘21 class is completely off the books now. Whatever limitations this roster has belong to Venables alone now.
If you look back at the ‘23 class, it sums up the state of affairs well. The group consisted of 25 signees, with nine offensive players. Of those nine, only two remain on the roster: offensive linemen Heath Ozaeta and Logan Howland.
Which points to an important question: Even if the Sooners take off on the field this year, is there any evidence suggesting this coaching staff can develop offensive talent? It would really help Venables’ case if players like Ozaeta, receiver Zion Kearney and running back Taylor Tatum showed signs of life this season.
Picks and Recs: To Catch a Killer
If your viewing habits are anything like mine, the streaming services have likely been beating you over the head with this “thriller” in your suggestions. I finally capitulated to the algorithm and watched it on a flight over the weekend. Wow, it sucked something fierce.
The premise: Ben Mendelsohn is a savvy FBI agent with a distaste for politics and optics. Shailene Woodley is a Baltimore cop with a chip on her shoulder because… she didn’t go to college? When a talented marksman goes on a shooting rampage in Charm City on New Year’s Eve, Mendelsohn gives Woodley a spot on the team tasked with catching the shooter because something about her psyche enables her to think like a mass murderer. (Mendelsohn apparently recognizes Woodley’s unique skill when she looks in the direction of a toilet at a crime scene early in the movie.) For two hours, the unlikely pairing find themselves stymied at every turn by brownnosing bureaucrats and image-conscious politicians as they pursue their mysterious suspect.
I’m underselling it when I say Woodley isn’t cut out for this role – she is painfully dull. The more disappointing part is Mendelsohn, who is a personal favorite. Maybe he was doing someone a favor by taking the role, but watching him try to deliver and react to such hamfisted dialogue hurts.
Long story short: Don’t pretend like you know me, algorithm.