Blatant Homerism: Jumping to conclusions
Not so long ago, an 11-point win in Norman over the No. 15 team in the country was considered a typical day at the office for the Oklahoma Sooners.
You’d never know that judging by the excitement that has swelled following OU’s 24-13 victory over the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday. Two seasons of 6-7 records in three years can do that to a proud program and its fans.
From an attention standpoint, you couldn’t get a more favorable scenario for OU than a matchup between college football aristocrats in what was easily the biggest national draw among a ho-hum slate of games. Now, a reality check.
The Sooners did what they were supposed to do to Michigan, a disciplined and well-coached team that is not in the same zip code as the one that won a national championship two years ago. That the underdog Wolverines and freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood would struggle in primetime at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium shouldn’t come as a surprise – they didn’t exactly blow out a poor New Mexico team at the Big House in week one. You might need two hands to count the number of OU’s remaining opponents this season that will present tougher tests than the Wolverines.
Nevertheless, Michigan offered a good stress test for OU at an early point in the season. With two games down, we can draw a few preliminary conclusions about this year’s Sooners.
John Mateer belongs
Can we finally dismiss the talk about the defenses Mateer faced as Washington State’s quarterback in 2024?
“Mateer played worse against better opponents” seemed like a thin critique before the season started, especially considering Wazzu won two of the three games that were often cited in support of it. After completing 21-of-34 pass attempts for 270 yards with a touchdown and an interception versus Michigan, he should have answered some of the questions about leveling up. Mateer’s 19 carries for 74 yards and two touchdowns against the Wolverines demonstrated the additional problems he can pose for defenses with his legs.
We won’t know if Mateer can survive the physical toll of playing that way for an entire season until he does or doesn’t do it. His gunslinging could cost the Sooners a game eventually. But in terms of the actual skills required to be a good college quarterback, Mateer appears to have them.
Prepare for aggravation
As depicted in the graphic above from Parker Fleming, the Sooners dominated the Wolverines in the core competencies of football on Saturday. This yielded a substantial advantage in net success rate in favor of OU.
Translation: OU put its boot to Michigan’s ass on play after play throughout the game.
But if OU so thoroughly outclassed Michigan, why did the home team need a field goal with less than two minutes remaining to put the score out of reach? To be sure, the Wolverines’ offensive pace helped keep the game close as they melted an average of 30 seconds off the game clock with each play. But the Sooners sustained some self-inflicted wounds that enabled the Wolverines to stay within striking distance late into the game. For example, a penalty for roughing the punter in the second quarter erased an OU possession starting in plus territory, turning a three-and-out stop by the defense into a 13-play, 72-yard drive by Michigan that bled more than six minutes off the game clock. Later, Isaiah Sategna muffed a punt that essentially conceded three points to Michigan.
There were other examples throughout the game of the Sooners acting as their own worst enemies, but you get the point. When teams insist on making life harder for themselves, it eventually catches up with them. Fortunately, OU emerged unscathed this time.
Things like flubbed kickoff returns and sloppy ball security have plagued OU since Brent Venables took over as head coach, so don’t get your hopes up that they will get cleaned up any time soon. Do get yourself in the right headspace to deal with plenty of frustration in the next 10 games. In the aggregate, it’s worth making that trade if it yields peak performance often enough.
The offense can still get much better
Speaking of headspace, California transfer Jaydn Ott has yet to contribute anything substantial at running back. His general absence from the action through two games has left some fans fuming at running backs coach DeMarco Murray, others bemoaning the substantial investment OU made to acquire his services, and another faction wondering what is going on. Could the former Golden Bear be living that doghouse life?
Whatever the reason, it is way too early in the season to write off Ott as a bust. Hopefully, he reaches a point where everything comes together, because the offense has a highest peak capacity with Ott as its feature back.
Meanwhile, the status of wide receiver Javonnie Gibson seems more clear. The transfer from Arkansas-Pine Bluff is nearing full strength after sustaining a broken leg in the spring, and it sounds like a matter of when he’s coming back, not if. Members of the media seem to be targeting OU’s date with Auburn on Sept. 20 as Gibson’s most likely debut.
So far, OU’s Javonnie-less receiving corps has been one of the more pleasant of the season’s surprises.The buzz coming out of spring practices was that Gibson looked like the best of the bunch, though. At worst, adding Gibson to the mix will give the receiving room more depth. More likely, his presence in the lineup will help shift the OU offense into a higher gear.
The Sooners offense has crept into the top 25 of the SP+ and FEI efficiency rankings through two weeks. Improvement seems likely if Gibson and Ott make it back into the lineup at full health.
Other Games on My Radar
Another tepid schedule.
Kansas State at Arizona
The situation in the Little Apple appears to be deteriorating rapidly. If the Wildcats were dealing with a hangover from their Dublin trip, losing to Army last week should be the equivalent of a cold shower. A flat performance out in the desert this week would suggest the problems go deeper than that. (Plus, this is on Friday night.)
South Alabama at Auburn
OU plays Auburn next. Otherwise, I wouldn’t care.
Georgia at Tennessee
The Bulldogs haven’t looked right this year, while the Volunteers have dropped a couple hammers. Kirby Smart usually gets his teams’ minds right for these kinds of games. What if he doesn’t this time?
Texas A&M at Notre Dame
One would think a team coached by Mike Elko would excel at stopping the run, but the Aggies gave up 203 yards on 33 carries to Texas-San Antonio a couple weeks ago. Extrapolate out, and ND running back Jeremiyah Love might go for 600. That would set a record.