Blatant Homerism: The Jackson Arnold Bowl
Has a change of scenery changed Jackson Arnold as a quarterback?
That question looms large over Saturday’s matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and Auburn Tigers. We don’t need to rehash the debacle that was Arnold’s only season as OU’s starting quarterback. What matters now is if he has taken enough steps forward to lead a talented Auburn squad to a win over his former team.
Based on what we’ve seen so far, Arnold and the rest of the Auburn offense are facing an uphill battle versus the Sooners.
At this point, the Tigers are executing one of the most methodical offenses in the country. They have a high success rate of 55.8%, which ranks 13th in the country. Only 22.6% of their offensive plays this year have produced zero or negative yards, so they’re consistently moving the ball forward. They rarely go three-and-out when they have the ball (four of 30 possessions through three games).
In other words, Auburn is playing move-the-chains offense. The team has a strong overall success rate on third-down conversions of 53%, which ranks 17th nationally. It owes that success in part to the fact that about 30% of those tries only require one or two yards to pick up the first down. More than half of Auburn’s conversion attempts on third down require six yards or fewer. When they do fail on third down, the Tigers often put themselves in position to convert for a first down one play later: They have hit on all five of their fourth-down conversions this season.
Auburn is accomplishing all of this by skewing its offense heavily to the run. Its offensive plays in the first three games break down as nearly two rushing attempts for every pass (63% run, 37% pass). When the Tigers do throw the ball, they hardly ever aim beyond 10 yards down the field. Only 3% of their passing targets have covered between 11 and 19 yards, and 10% have gone 20 yards or more in the air. The average depth of Arnold’s targets in the passing game is 7.8 yards, according to PFF (ADOT), which ranks 68th out of 90 qualifying QBs in college football.
To be fair, the way opponents defend the Tigers is dictating their small-ball style to a degree. Baylor, for example, routinely gave Auburn looks with two high safeties and light run boxes:
The Tigers happily exploited the Bears’ defensive game plan for 307 yards on 52 carries. And therein lies the rub.
No one on the Plains can object to the results of Auburn’s mechanistic offensive approach with coach Hugh Freeze micromanaging his RPO-heavy offense from the sideline. The Tigers have raced out to a 3-0 start after thumping Baylor, Ball State and South Alabama. They’re averaging 37 points per game in the process, and they have yet to win a game by fewer than two touchdowns.
But this feels like a lot of orchestration on Auburn’s part just to move the ball against teams with defenses rated no better than 71st in SP+. And despite all that effort, the Tigers aren’t generating big plays. They currently rank 113th nationally in marginal explosiveness.
Of course, it’s possible that Freeze has been waiting for the right moment to unleash Auburn’s dynamic passing attack – and that right moment would be Saturday. If so, that would represent a major departure from how Auburn has operated under Freeze in the previous two seasons. Note that QB Payton Thorne had an ADOT of 9.0 in 2023 and 10.0 last year. (And in 2024, the Tigers ranked 17th in the country in marginal explosiveness.)
A more likely explanation for the Tigers going with the death-by-a-thousand-cuts offense would be that Freeze doesn’t want to rely on Arnold’s arm in high-leverage situations. In that sense, shot plays on first down early in the game work; dropping back on third-and-10 doesn’t.
Arnold as a QB running threat has undoubtedly added an element of danger to Auburn’s offense. The Sooners know as well as anyone what kind of damage he can do with his legs.
But Auburn probably can’t win this game by simply asking Arnold not to lose it. Count on the OU defense to do its best to make the Tigers throw more often – and farther down the field – than they want.
Other Games on My Radar
It feels like the college football gods could treat us to some funky results this weekend.
Tulsa at Oklahoma State
Could Mike Gundy join DeShaun Foster and Brent Pry on the unemployment line? It seems unimaginable for the most successful head coach in OSU history, but anything is possible if the Cowboys drop this game.
Texas Tech at Utah
These two teams lack curb appeal, but both have played sharp football to start the season. The winner becomes the early frontrunner in a competitive Big 12 race.
Illinois at Indiana
So far, the Hoosiers have made last season’s success look less like a fluke and more like the norm around Bloomington. The Fighting Illini present a far greater challenge than the punching bags Curt Cignetti’s team faced in its first three game, though.
SMU at TCU
Speaking of flukes, the Mustangs are giving off the vibe that their bid to the College Football Playoff in ‘24 was an aberration.