Blatant Homerism: A way forward?
If you told me before the season started that the Oklahoma Sooners would be sitting at 2-2 after four games in the 2026 season, it would not have shocked me. I had high expectations for the team, but the prospect of losing at Michigan and at Georgia would not have struck me as outlandish. I would have felt even less surprised about their record if you told me starting left tackle Michael Fasusi sat out all but one quarter of the season so far.
You can see a sinkhole opening up beneath the season in the next few weeks if something doesn’t change. But what could that thing be? Here are two factors to consider.
The schedule
OU’s remaining schedule doesn’t exactly lighten up, but we’re talking matters of degree.
No team in the country can match up with what the Sooners have faced in their first four games of the season. Notably, OU has taken on two teams that rank in the top 10 nationally in Defensive SP+, Georgia (No. 1) and Michigan (No. 9), and another that ranks 29th in New Mexico. The final stretch includes dates with two more teams that appear staunch defensively in Texas (No. 5) and Missouri (No. 14), but the other six generally fall in the middling range. Maybe OU’s beleaguered offense will get a breather?
Also, looking at who OU’s remaining opponents play the week before taking on the Sooners, it seems fortunate that two will see LSU (Kentucky and Mississippi State) and two will get Georgia (Florida and Ole Miss).
Turnover luck
The Sooners have gotten some rotten bounces on turnovers. For starters, of the 11 fumbles in their games this year, they have recovered only three. Meanwhile, they have intercepted one of their 16 passes defensed (the sum of interceptions and passes broken up) this season. On the other hand, opponents are enjoying unusually high conversion rates for turnovers against OU: Eight of 11 fumbles have gone their way, while they have turned four of 11 passes defensed into INTs.
With fumble recovery rates historically around 50% and interception conversions at about 20% of passes defensed, OU’s turnover margin is probably skewed by about five or six turnovers against the Sooners. It would help if the OU offense could not put the ball on the ground and not put passes in position to get intercepted. But it’s reasonable to think better turnover luck is coming.
OU could also take the more direct path to prosperity and just play better football.
The frustrating part about the season through four games is that OU looks like the same team from 2025. In the aggregate, the Sooners have played excellent defense, ranking sixth overall in Defensive SP+. They survived key losses on that side of the ball and haven’t missed a beat so far.
On the other side of the ball, OU’s offense remains John Mateer’s show – for good and bad. The Sooners are involving their quarterback heavily in a running game that has yet to show any punch. With the ground attack sputtering, OU is counting on Mateer’s arm to keep the chains moving.
It may not seem like it, but Mateer is throwing the ball more efficiently through four games in ‘26 than he did a year ago. His completion percentage has climbed modestly from 62% to 66%, and the Sooners are generating nearly a full yard more per passing attempt, up from 7.3 in ‘25 to 8.1. His two-to-one ratio of touchdown passes to interceptions beats his mark from last year, too.
However, putting more responsibility on Mateer raises OU’s exposure to his proclivity for catastrophes. The Sooners had to overcome a few QB-induced disasters in game three, a narrow win over New Mexico in which Mateer tossed two befuddling picks in OU territory. Similar gaffes in matchups versus Georgia and Michigan proved too much to overcome.
Going forward, OU might find it easier to lean more on its rushing attack. Georgia, Michigan and New Mexico stop the run well, which magnified the impotence of the Sooners’ ground game. Most of OU’s remaining opponents don’t defend as well against the run, so the Sooners don’t have to make major strides on the ground to better manage possessions and game flow.
If the Sooners generate more production from their running game, Mateer’s erraticism will remain the biggest variable in play for the offense. Of Mateer’s six turnovers this season, all occurred on third or fourth down. You could characterize at least four of them as obvious passing downs. Avoiding those situations might help OU’s QB make better decisions with the ball.
All of that requires maintaining the engagement and confidence of the players on the roster, especially Mateer. You’ll probably notice it also involves a lot of “might.” But it seems like that’s what OU has left.
Other games on my radar
With the Sooners taking a breather, I’m looking forward to catching up on some of the buzzworthy squads I have missed so far this year.
Alabama at Mississippi State
Yeah, yeah – the Bulldogs are some of the darlings of college football this year. I actually want to get a closer look at the Crimson Tide with Keelon Russell behind center. It sounds like they may be the closest challengers to Georgia and Ohio State for national supremacy.
Florida at Missouri
The Gators just torched an Ole Miss squad coming down from an emotional high post-LSU. Missouri’s desperation and defense make this game a different kind of proposition for UF.
Maryland at Nebraska
We can kill two birds with one stone with this game. First, we’ll see what is driving the Cornhuskers’ solid start to the year. Second, it offers a chance to assess Maryland QB Malik Washington, a potential free agent after the season.
Washington at USC
Lincoln Riley’s teams usually lose last week’s game, not this one. Stranger things have happened, though.
Kentucky at South Carolina
Two teams that play OU this month. Given the vibes around the Gamecocks, a little strange to see they are favored here, no?