Blatant Homerism: Mulling over Oklahoma's search for an offensive coordinator
With Oklahoma’s search for a new offensive coordinator in full swing, I’d like to offer a few general observations about what comes next for the Sooners.
Beware the dead cat bounce.
If you’re unfamiliar with the term, the idea of a “dead cat bounce” started in the financial world as a way to describe a temporary surge in the value of an asset that is in an otherwise sustained decline. It has become shorthand in today’s usage for a minor or short-lived resurgence of something that has experienced a dramatic dropoff in worth or productivity.
The signs of life offered last week in their upset win over the Florida Gators left some fans and pundits alike wondering if interim coordinator Jason Witten should get the job permanently. Now in year three of the Sooners’ offensive malaise, that’s a standard knee-jerk response.
In reality, if the OU offense is the decedent, Florida’s soft defense was the pavement last week. The Sooners get another cushy assignment this week against Ole Miss. The Rebels rank 48th overall in Defensive SP+, and their D has been torn to shreds on multiple occasions this season.
Witten took over at a favorable point in the schedule. Even if OU dices up the Ole Miss D this weekend, we should maintain a healthy perspective about what it means.
OU’s offensive issues start with managing the quarterback room.
Planning around the most important position in football has played a significant role in all of Brent Venables’ hires at offensive coordinator in the last five years.
Jeff Lebby had a handpicked signal caller in transfer Dillon Gabriel who was already familiar with the Bear Raid scheme. When Lebby left for Mississippi State, Venables elevated analyst Seth Littrell to the coordinator role to maintain continuity for touted QB prospect Jackson Arnold. That disastrous pairing had OU looking for a new coordinator and transfer QB a year later, and Venables settled on Washington State’s Ben Arbuckle and John Mateer.
It’s tough to say if Venables’ evaluations of QBs or coordinator candidates have been the bigger problem since Lebby and Gabriel exited Norman. However, we can say erratic QB play has hamstrung OU’s program for the better part of three seasons, and the Sooners will find themselves scouring the transfer market again in search of a QB in December.
Is another package deal of coordinator and QB the right answer for OU? Is it even possible? I don’t know, but in the near term, finding a good QB for 2027 matters just as much as who will be coaching him.
Hopefully, Jim Nagy has influence over this process.
The organizational structure in OU’s football program seems murky from the outside looking in. However, Nagy and Venables do share some responsibility for the program’s direction, so Nagy should play a role in making this hire as a matter of course.
More importantly, though, players win games, and it’s Nagy’s job to assess the market for talent. If there are advantages to be gained in player acquisition based on what OU is doing offensively, the braintrust should factor that into this decision.
Nagy doesn’t have to be a schematic genius to identify those market inefficiencies.
The perfect offense does not exist.
In sports, schematic edges are fleeting. Versions of the spread offense in football, for instance, allowed undermanned teams to compete by exploiting conventional defensive strategies and offense-friendly rules. Once the spread became ubiquitous at all levels of the sport, offenses like the Air Raid turned into just another way to play football.
Ultimately, the objective in football is to score at least one more point than your opponent. Getting hung up on particulars such as tempo or base personnel groupings ignores the reality that different approaches are more conducive to different circumstances.
If Venables and other decisionmakers believe a certain style of offense fits best with OU’s defense or within a broader vision for the program, that’s great. But all that really matters is finding a coordinator who gives the Sooners the best chance to score one more point on Saturdays.
Other games on my radar
With so many star players lost to injury, it feels as though this season is limping to the finish line.
Texas at LSU
You would hope that Lane Kiffin’s reputation as a genius tactician is crumbling after seasons like this one and losses like the one LSU suffered versus Alabama last week. Seems doubtful, though, so long as he keeps picking up the phone when media members call him.
Utah at Arizona
The Utes feel like the kind of team that would get toppled in the College Football Playoff by a Boise State or a New Mexico.
USC at Indiana
The Trojans have to win a game outside of the Pacific time zone eventually, right?
Tulane at Rice
Skip the honeymoon – the marriage of Will Hall and Tulane already seems like it’s on the rocks in year one. Losing to Rice would constitute a major step in the direction of a split.
Wake Forest at SMU
My interest in this game extends no further than my ticket on SMU to win the ACC.