Blatant Homerism: Time to pound the rock
Based on what we now know about their opponents, the Oklahoma Sooners’ 2025 schedule has an interesting asymmetry to it.
In their first seven games, the Sooners saw arguably the toughest slate of defenses of any school in the country. Based on Defensive SP+, OU has already faced teams ranked No. 1 (Texas), No. 9 (Michigan), No. 10 (Auburn) and No. 17 (South Carolina). Even though the team’s scoring has only increased by four points per game over 2024, that heavy diet of strong defenses helps explain OU’s leap in Offensive SP+ from 75th last year to 39th nationally. (As a reminder, SP+ is an opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency.)
Of OU’s first seven opponents, the best offense it faced was Michigan, which is currently No. 48 in Offensive SP+. The remaining five games on the schedule, on the other hand, include four stellar offenses. It starts on Saturday with the Ole Miss Rebels, who enter the game ranked No. 10. OU follows that up with Tennessee (No. 4), Alabama (No. 15) and Missouri (No. 17).
In that respect, Saturday’s matchup with the Rebs offers a bellwether of what’s in store for OU the rest of the way. How does a high-powered O like the one Lane Kiffin’s team is bringing to the table change the keys to the victory for the Sooners – if at all?
The Rebels have somehow taken a step forward at the skill positions this season to add some potency to an offense that ranks 10th overall in SP+ in 2025. It’s a balanced offense that plays at breakneck tempo. OU would likely struggle if asked to trade punches with it.
However, the Rebs sent the majority of the contributors from a top-notch defense in 2024 to the NFL. Ergo, the Sooners would probably be better off if John Mateer and the rest of the OU O spend more time methodically working the ball down the field than watching their defense try to get stops.
OU is in luck – the Rebs don’t stop the run well. They’re allowing an average of 4.72 yards per rush, and Georgia just piled up 221 rushing yards against them on 49 carries. For the season, Ole Miss ranks 113th overall in rushing success rate on defense and 120th in EPA per rush.
The Sooners don’t run the ball as efficiently as the Bulldogs or Arkansas, which ran for 221 yards on 37 attempts versus Ole Miss earlier this season. OU’s ground game did show some spark last week against South Carolina, though, and the Gamecocks defend the run far better this year than the Rebs. A one-two punch of Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson combined for 159 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries last week. The duo benefitted from moving a healthy Kaden Helms into the rotation to give the O a more effective blocker at tight end for split zone and zone insert run calls.
Looking ahead on the schedule, now is the time for OU to solidify its ground game. If the Sooners pull that off against Ole Miss, their next two opponents – Tennessee and Alabama – don’t stop the run well, either. OU won’t necessarily become a ground-and-pound offense the rest of the way this season, but having a more effective rushing attack could only help.
Other Games on My Radar
Not the sexiest slate this week.
South Florida at Memphis
The injury to Tigers quarterback Brendon Lewis and Memphis’ loss last week to Alabama-Birmingham have changed the complexion of this matchup considerably. USF now looks to be in the driver’s seat for the crown in the American and, by extension, a guaranteed spot in the College Football Playoff. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Memphis won this game?
Auburn at Arkansas
Auburn has lost four consecutive games, while Arkansas has dropped five straight. Together, the two teams are a combined 0-7 in games decided by no more than one score. Both are being coached by some of the profession’s most dastardly members.
Something’s gotta give here.
Missouri at Vanderbilt
Somehow this became the game of the week in college football.
Houston at Arizona State
The Cougars are 6-1 thanks to guts and guile. They will need that and more on Saturday against the Sun Devils, who may be peaking with the return of QB Sam Leavitt.
Picks and Recs: English Teacher
I can’t remember if I have given English Teacher my endorsement in the past. If I have, I’m doing it again.
Brian Jordan Alvarez’s sitcom about the trials and tribulations of a gay educator at an Austin high school is easily the funniest show around right now. Ironically, he plays the straight man to a hilarious group of colleagues, led by Alvarez’s frequent collaborator Stephanie Koenig. Sean Patton also does amazing work as the school’s gym teacher and football coach.
The second season of English Teacher manages to match the brilliance of the first, which is no small feat. The third episode, “Grant’s Dinner Party,” is a highwater mark for the series. Here’s hoping FX signs on for a third season.