Blatant Homerism: Nerding out
Among the milestones of college football’s offseason, the release of Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ rankings for ESPN stands out as one of my favorites. (For the record, all conference media days are tied for the worst.)
If you’re new to the nerd game, Bill’s numbers represent measures of efficiency on offense, defense and special teams, adjusted for tempo and quality of opponents. Think of them as pure power rankings based on a proprietary blend of factors that include recruiting rankings, returning production and recent performance. The goal is to establish an objective ratings system that is as accurate as possible, portraying how teams compare against a hypothetical average squad.
The SP+ numbers have become an industry-standard rubric for measuring performance in college football, given the reality that asymmetrical scheduling and playing styles make like-for-like comparisons of raw stats almost worthless. They’ve also become the equivalent of a shadow system of power rankings for linesmakers settings odds and point spreads on college games.
A few thoughts on what SP+ has to say about the Oklahoma Sooners and college football as a whole in 2025.
When last we checked in with SP+ for Bill’s first set of projections in February, the Sooners came in at 20th overall. OU ticked up to No. 16 in the latest iteration.
The Sooners owe the move entirely to what the model views as upgrades on offense, as they shot up from 43rd to 25th nationally in Offensive SP+. OU gained 3.5 points on offense in the latest update. (A team’s SP+ rating is equal to the difference of its offensive and defensive metrics plus its special teams metric.)
To what do we attribute the improved outlook on offense? First, the Sooners added 607 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns to their returning production in the form of Cal running back Jaydn Ott in the spring transfer cycle. Meanwhile, they lost little with the transfer of Gavin Sawchuk, who accounted for just 156 total yards and one touchdown on offense in 2024. Stanford offensive lineman Jake Maikkula also joined the squad in April, bring 764 snaps from last year with him.
In other words, OU made the most of the spring portal window.
Although SP+ says OU got better in recent months, the update still comes bearing bad news: The teams on the schedule in 2025 didn’t get any worse. In fact, SP+’s strength of schedule metric indicates the Sooners will face the toughest slate in the country this fall.
Notably, SP+ ranks half of OU’s 12 opponents inside the top 13 overall: No. 2 Alabama, No. 5 Texas, No. 9 LSU, No. 10 Michigan, No. 11 Ole Miss and No. 13 Tennessee. Three more fall inside the top 25: No. 17 South Carolina, No. 21 Missouri and No. 25 Auburn.
That’s how you get a win projection of 6.9 for the season.
Speaking of which, here are the SP+ projected point spreads for OU’s games this year, using 2.5 points for home field advantage:
Illinois State = -100 (?)
Michigan = +2.5
@ Temple = -30.5
Auburn = -7
Kent St. = -42.5
Texas (neutral) = +10
@ South Carolina = +2
Ole Miss = +1
@ Tennessee = +4.5
@ Alabama = +14
Missouri = -6.5
LSU = +3
As for observations about the projections on the whole…
*Penn State at No. 3? Fine, that’s what the computer thinks – but that is setting up for some serious disappointment in Happy Valley. If the Nittany Lions are the third-best team in the country, we are in for a seriously down year across the sport.
*A couple other teams that I suspect won’t live up to SP+’s estimates: Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Arizona State and Indiana. Underrated: Utah, Duke and Houston.
*Looking at the SOS rankings, 12 of the 13 toughest schedules in the country belong to teams in the SEC. The weakest schedule in the SEC? That would belong to Missouri. The Tigers’ slate ranks 25th in the country.
*While we’re at it, let’s note that Texas’ schedule is rated 11th in the SEC. When you consider it includes an out-of-conference game against the No. 1 team in the country, Ohio State, it speaks to the fortunate break the Longhorns got when the league office drew up new schedules in response to expanding the conference.