Blatant Homerism: The Mateer Conundrum
Following a year of unfamiliar incompetence at quarterback, the Oklahoma Sooners are banking on Washington State transfer John Mateer to get their offense back firing on all cylinders.
Widely viewed as one of the top QBs available in the transfer portal this cycle, Mateer opted to follow offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Pullman, Washington, to Norman in the offseason. The hope around Sooner Nation is that the pairing will continue building on a 2024 campaign in which they keyed an 8-4 regular season for the Cougars behind an offense that ranked 22nd overall in offensive efficiency by the SP+ ratings system.
However, the step up in weight class from Wazzu’s glorified Mountain West schedule to college football’s top division is rightfully tempering expectations for the gunslinger from Little Elm, Texas. When looking ahead to 2025, what kind of a discount factor should we apply to Mateer’s 3,965 yards of total offense and 44 touchdowns from last season?
Since we’re not really in the business of statistical projections, let’s instead look at some of the major factors worth considering in assessing how Mateer will translate to playing triggerman for the Sooners in the fall.
Don’t waste time arguing about cherry-picked stats from individual games.
This goes for any player, really. Eye-catching stats–both good and bad–from a single game can signal something about a performance, but those numbers frequently contain plenty of noise.
Mateer certainly threw up some stat lines in a few games in 2024 that warrant concern. Versus Texas Tech, for instance, he completed just nine of his 19 pass attempts for 115 yards with one interception and one touchdown. His numbers looked pedestrian throwing the ball against Fresno State, too, completing 17 of 35 passes for 172 yards and a pick.
On the other hand, Mateer excelled in one of the Cougars’ toughest games of the season when they traveled to Boise State in September (26-of-37 pass attempts, 327 yards, two TDs, one INT). We also shouldn’t overlook the damage Mateer did on the ground, including rushing for 197 yards on 21 attempts and a TD in the aforementioned matchup with Texas Tech.
But these data points by themselves don’t tell us very much. Even if you think this line of inquiry is fruitful, you can just as easily make both pro and con cases for Mateer’s potential at OU.
Washington State did play a bunch of bad teams in 2024.
No one can deny this. SP+ ranked Wazzu’s strength of schedule 102nd in the country. In the regular season, the Cougars played one FCS team and eight opponents that ranked 85th or worse in SP+.
A big reason why so many of those teams stunk: their defenses. Washington (No. 36) and Boise State (No. 50) were the only two of WSU’s opponents to rank inside the top 50 in Defensive SP+.
Mateer will have a lot to prove against arguably the toughest schedule in the country and some of the nation’s best defenses. On the other hand…
Wazzu didn’t have overwhelming talent on its side, either.
According to the 247Sports Team Talent Composite, Washington State had the 75th-best roster in the country last season. That put the Cougars in the same neighborhood as some of their opponents, such as Oregon State (No. 73), Boise State (No. 76), and San Diego State (No. 77). They were pretty far behind Texas Tech (No. 38) and Washington (No. 35). They had the upper hand to differing degrees against the other seven teams on the slate.
We should note that Wazzu suffered some stinging personnel losses from the 2023 squad on the offensive side of the ball aside from starting quarterback Cam Ward departing for Miami. Leading receiver Josh Kelly transferred to Texas Tech. Also, the team’s second-leading receiver, Lincoln Victor, graduated, along with top rusher Nakia Watson.
Mateer did have the good fortune last year of throwing to dynamic wideout Kyle Williams, a third-round pick in this year’s NFL draft. Overall, though, the difference in talent around him relative to the competition last season looks roughly the same as what he’ll experience at OU in 2025. This seems like a wash.
”But Cam Ward…”
Stop right there. Ward and Mateer do share in common that they played quarterback for teams at Wazzu with Ben Arbuckle calling the offense. However, Ward’s surge at Miami last season, which catapulted him to the top pick in the NFL draft, doesn’t mean much when it comes to projecting how Mateer will play in 2025.
For starters, Ward faced a much stouter level of competition in Pullman in 2023. SP+ ranked Wazzu’s strength of schedule 38th nationally, significantly outpacing the following year’s team. That included five opponents with defenses that ranked 44th overall or better in SP+.
To be fair, Mateer probably assembled a more impressive season last year (statistically) than the one Ward had in ‘23.
Mateer can’t play the same brand of ball against teams in the SEC.
According to PFF.com’s stats, Mateer scrambled at an exceedingly high rate last season. His 46 rushes on scrambles throughout the season yielded 40% of his total rushing yardage. His 103 designed runs were effective at 5.9 yards per attempt, but they didn’t pop the same way.
All in all, few QBs ran the ball more than Mateer did in ‘24. They included option QBs Bryson Dailey of Army, Blake Horvath of Navy, and Tyler Huff of Jacksonville State. The only QB playing in the SEC who could match Mateer in rushing attempts? Vanderbilt field general Diego Pavia, who toted the rock 175 times for the Commodores in 12 regular season games.
Asking Mateer to play the same way this year carries greater risk. At 6-1, 224 pounds, Mateer isn’t small for his position, but his size isn’t overwhelming. (For reference’s sake, dual-threat QB LaNorris Sellers of South Carolina checks in at 6-3, 242 pounds.) Whether he’s scrambling in dropback situations or carrying the ball on designed runs, Mateer will be trying to elude bigger, faster defenders. That likely means a greater toll on his body for smaller marginal gains on the ground.
In that sense, Mateer going all “one man gang” week after week probably won’t have the same payoff in his new surroundings. That will put the onus on Arbuckle and his QB to use some discretion over how much punishment Mateer absorbs—and when he absorbs it—over the course of the season.
If any of this is harshing your vibe about Mateer, it shouldn’t. He’s one of the most impactful returning quarterbacks in college football this year. Seeing as he will be working with the same offensive coordinator for the third year in a row, it’s hard to envision him not progressing to some degree in ‘25.
These are all good things, especially after OU just slogged through a season with abjectly horrible play behind center. At the very least, his addition to the roster has raised the floor beneath OU’s offense significantly.