Blatant Homerism: Texas time
Since it’s the week of the Red River Shootout, I feel obligated to write about Saturday’s matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl.
As an OU fan, I realize that phrasing sounds defeatist. I don’t intend it that way. I wouldn’t rule out the Sooners’ chances of winning their annual grudge match.
However, I do find it difficult to come up with anything original to say about this particular matchup. I’ll explain more below.
The Longhorns’ overhaul provided one of the biggest stories of the offseason this year. Head coach Steve Sarkisian showed the door to some key contributors from the 2025 UT team, including receivers DeAndre Moore and Parker Livingstone and running back Tre Wisner. The Horns redirected the funds for paying those players – and presumably more money on top of that – to a bevy of high-profile free agents, such as receiver Cam Coleman, running backs Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown, and linebacker Rasheem Biles.
Presumably motivated by last year’s disappointing season and a desire to capitalize on Arch Manning’s final run at quarterback, the moves have produced improvements on both sides of the ball for the Longhorns. Heading into Saturday’s rivalry game against the Oklahoma Sooners in Dallas, UT checks in at eighth overall in SP+ through five weeks of the season. That represents an uptick from its finish of 17th in ‘25.
Texas’ offense is operating more efficiently, rising from No. 30 in Offensive SP+ last year to 19th now. Meanwhile, Sark’s decision to sack Pete Kwiatkowski as defensive coordinator in favor of Will Muschamp also appears to be paying dividends: The Horns rank fifth nationally in Defensive SP+, up from 18th at the close of ‘25.
The 4-0 Longhorns scored the biggest win of the entire college football season when they knocked off Ohio State in week two. All signs are pointing to Texas fielding a materially better team this year than a year ago. So why do the results feel a little underwhelming so far for the squad sitting atop the major college football polls?
If you’re looking for a laggard for Texas relative to the rest of its team, the running game looks like the most obvious culprit. UT has a rushing success rate of 45.4%, which ranks around 60th nationally. Importantly, UT runners are carrying the ball for about 1.7 yards before contact, one of the worst marks in the country.
In turn, the lack of respect for the Texas ground attack has seemingly enabled opposing defenses to limit the Horns’ explosiveness, another area where advanced statistics show UT near the bottom of the country. For example, Tennessee frequently played with two high safeties on run downs when the Volunteers and Longhorns met earlier this year.
Sark has turned his team’s offense into a methodical machine that acquires yardage in manageable chunks, to his credit. Roughly 30% of UT’s third-down conversion attempts require two yards or fewer, which ranks fifth nationally. The Longhorns are successfully converting 94% of those third-and-short attempts.
Importantly, Texas appears to be shaping its offensive strategy in response to the choices other teams are making as to how they want to defend the Longhorns. Opponents would rather force Manning and company to matriculate the ball down the field than give them openings to take deep shots. It seems like the smartest bet.
We’ll find out on Saturday if OU head coach Brent Venables agrees.
Of course, the inability of OU’s beleaguered offense to put points on the board creates a much larger problem for the Sooners.
Although the Texas offense has yet to reach an operational level befitting the investment made in it, Muschamp has the other side of the ball playing fast and physical. Pass rushers Colin Simmons and Lance Jackson have created havoc off the edges this season to force ill-advised throws into the teeth of the Horns’ talented secondary – when QBs actually have time to get passes off. For his part, the Pittsburgh transfer Biles quickly stepped into a key role at linebacker and became a bedrock of the Texas D.
None of that renders the UT defense totally impenetrable. But the Sooners have fallen apart this year when matched up with teams of similar caliber – which is to say that Mateer has fallen apart. OU’s offensive line hasn’t set the world on fire, either. (Look at what Venables said about the unit earlier this week.)
From that perspective, it feels pointless trying to break down what OU might do when it has the ball. The Sooners have to roll the dice with Mateer and hope like hell that their QB doesn’t bust the way he did in their last game versus Georgia – and the week before that versus New Mexico.
If the Sooners avoid those crippling turnovers, they can potentially muddle through the game by relying on Mateer’s legs to help move the chains and his arm to distribute the ball to tight end Rocky Beers and receiver Isaiah Sategna. Combine that with a solid day from the defense, and OU has a shot at winning.
(And, no, that is not an inspiring game plan.)
Finally, a quick digression. While you could certainly argue the Sooners have put themselves in position to give the ball away too often in their first four games, horrific turnover luck has made life more difficult for them.
OU’s -6 turnover margin lies well outside normal rates. According to estimates from Bill Connelly of ESPN, OU’s turnover should fall somewhere closer to zero, based on rates of fumble recoveries and interceptions versus pass defensed. He values the difference between the estimated total number of turnovers and the actual total for the Sooners at roughly eight points per game against OU.
In addition to the fact that a turnover necessarily means a scoreless possession for an offense, the second-order effects of giving the ball away can be severe. Against Michigan, for example, receiver Parker Livingstone coughed the ball up inside the Wolverines’ 30 yard line with OU trailing 7-0 in the first half. Michigan’s ensuing drive didn’t yield any points, but the impact on field position was substantial: A Wolverines punt pinned the Sooners inside their own one yard line. Three plays later, OU had to punt the ball from its own four yard line back to Michigan, setting up the Wolverines for a field goal and a two-score lead heading into halftime. Coming back from that kind of deficit in a half versus a team with Michigan’s defense is tough, even for a team with a good offense.
One way to think about this: The Sooners are currently “on pace” to finish with 18 more turnovers than what would be projected using normal historical rates for 12 games. It’s difficult to find turnover luck data compiled in one place, but for comparison’s sake, Southern Miss had the largest negative turnover margin in the country at -19 in 2024. The Golden Eagles finished the season with 11 turnovers above their estimated total.
The smart bet is that turnover luck will have less impact against OU for the rest of the season. Saturday’s game seems like as good a time as any for some regression.
Other games on my radar
Georgia at Alabama
The radar that matters here is the one at the National Weather Service monitoring Tropical Storm Isaias. It sounds like the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide will still square off on Saturday, pitting two of the three best teams in the country for my money.
USC at Penn State
The Lincoln Riley Watch continues. The Trojans don’t have a great track record lately when it comes to traveling east, but the Nittany Lions don’t appear all that imposing right now.
UCLA at Oregon
Too bad this game is competing with Red River.
Syracuse at Virginia
One for the lax bros! I honestly have no interest in watching this game. I don’t know why it’s here.