Blatant Homerism: Mistake-proofing the Sooners
Trailing 7-0 at halftime of the NFL’s season opener on Wednesday night, the Seattle Seahawks mounted a comeback in the second half of their Super Bowl rematch that was just as much of a collapse by the New England Patriots. The Pats opened the third quarter with a field goal to extend their lead to 10 points. After Seattle got on the board with a field goal late in the period, New England quarterback Drake Maye threw interceptions on the team’s final three possessions. The turnovers led to 10 points for the home team and included a monumental gaffe on the Pats’ final possession by Maye, whose casual throwaway towards the Seahawks end zone floated into the arms of defensive back Josh Jobe to seal the win for the reigning world champions.
Professional QBs – especially MVP candidates – aren’t supposed to do that. Precision dictates the outcomes in the NFL.
College football, on the other hand, comes down to mistakes. Something invariably goes wrong, which is part of what makes it fun. The final score on Saturdays often reflects which team committed fewer errors, not which team took control of the game.
The Oklahoma Sooners’ 2025 season served as a testament to the power of mistakes in college football. Using an array of confusing defensive alignments and devilish pressure packages, head coach Brent Venables has made a career out of forcing opposing offenses to do the wrong thing at the right time for his teams. OU capitalized on opponents’ errors to score wins in a series of high-profile matchups last season en route to a bid to the College Football Playoff.
Of course, errors of commission stung the Sooners in ‘25, too. QB John Mateer showed a tendency to walk the team into trouble, leaving the defense to get OU out of a jam. For example, the D minimized the damage done when OU’s signal caller threw three interceptions in a 17-13 nailbiter over LSU. The D couldn’t deliver every time, though, such as a 23-6 loss to the Texas Longhorns in which Mateer’s three oskies essentially sealed OU’s fate.
That reality of college football has given us self-evident cliches about how matchups come down to “which team makes the fewest mistakes.” Unfortunately, that applies to this weekend’s matchup between Oklahoma and the Michigan Wolverines, another team with a QB who lives dangerously.
Bryce Underwood, the highly touted and highly compensated prospect who started at QB for the Wolverines last year as a freshman, helped pull his team from the fire last week. Although we could argue he should never have been given a chance to throw it, Underwood’s 47-yard Hail Mary completion to wideout JJ Buchanan stole a win from the upset-minded Western Michigan Broncos. The controversy over the ending didn’t dampen the enthusiasm of Underwood or the legions of Michigan fans who rushed the field to celebrate the victory.
In reality, though, Michigan needed Underwood’s heroics in large part because he played so poorly to that point. Underwood dropped back 26 times versus the Broncos, throwing the ball 23 times and completing 12 of the attempts. Notably, he gained nearly a third of his 170 passing yards on the game’s controversial final play. He threw one interception (that counted) and coughed up the ball on a rushing attempt late in the fourth quarter.
Underwood’s rank numbers don’t even capture how poorly he played. He looked completely flummoxed by a team from the MAC, and he did nothing in week one to suggest he is ready to overcome the nagging concerns about his play that dogged him a year ago. Underwood apparently wasn’t aware, either, that Michigan head coach Kyle Whittingham intimated the starting QB’s hold on his position is getting tenuous.
Nothing about the OU defense would suggest this is the occasion in which Michigan gets its offense untracked. WMU’s defense produced a stellar Havoc Rate of 19% against the Wolverines, which seems like a concerning sign for how they will handle OU’s relentless defensive scheme.
All of that sounds promising for OU’s chances of winning on Saturday, which was evident when the point spread shifted significantly in OU’s favor this week. However, we have witnessed time and again that the Sooners enjoy making things hard for themselves. For example, look at the last time these two teams played.
OU generally handled Michigan when they squared off in week two of the ‘25 season, a 24-13 win for the Sooners in Norman. The Wolverines racked up just 288 yards of total offense, and roughly a quarter of them came from a 75-yard touchdown run by running back Justice Haynes.
For its part, OU simply refused to separate from the visitors, thanks in large part to a series of its own screwups. They included a penalty for roughing the kicker that turned a three-and-out series by Michigan into a 13-play, 72-yard drive and a fumbled punt return in the third quarter that put the Wolverines in position for a field goal. Mateer also turned the ball over with a head-scratching overthrow from a clean pocket to an open receiver early in the game. In addition, Mateer missed a throw on a wide-open go route when he oddly decided to gun the ball on a rope to his target, rather than lofting it over a defensive back who was easily beat.
In the end, the Sooners needed a game-sealing field goal with less than two minutes to go to put away a team they thoroughly dominated.
Most of the talk around Mateer in the offseason centered on efforts to cut down on his erraticism. Did they pay off?
On the plus side, Mateer appeared more calm and collected running the offense in OU’s season debut against UTEP. The outclassed Miners could do little to put up roadblocks in the way of the Sooners, so you’d expect Mateer not to look frazzled in those circumstances. Nevertheless, he seemingly had far better command of the offense’s operations than he did in similar situations last season versus the likes of Illinois State and Temple.
Equally important, OU offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle has a better set of weapons at his disposal than he did 12 months ago. He can shift some of the burden for success to players besides Mateer now. If the QB has yet to shake off some of his old habits, Arbuckle has the option to turn down OU’s reliance on Mateer. If Mateer truly made strides in the offseason, he is now working with a more diverse set of threats around him.
Expect a better showing from the Wolverines when they take the field against OU than the one they gave in their season opener. Fortunately for the Sooners, early signs this year indicate they’re less prone to unforced errors now than they were a year ago.
Other games on my radar
Where else can we start but the big one down in Austin?
Ohio State at Texas
The Buckeyes knocked off the Longhorns last year in the Game That Launched a Thousand Posts. According to UT head coach Steve Sarkisian and a legion of burnt orange bloggers and pay site bloviators, the selection committee of the College Football Playoff punished the Horns at the end of the season for their bravery in scheduling that game in the first place. The truth: Highs like beating Oklahoma couldn’t paper over a body of work that suggested Texas wasn’t all that great. Sark recognized as much, adding enough weapons in the offseason to make his squad a favorite in the third meeting between the two programs in as many years.
Rutgers at Boston College
One for the sickos. What a depressing state of affairs in Chestnut Hill and Piscataway.
Oregon at Oklahoma State
Speaking of depressing, two consecutive losses to Tulsa? The people touting Drew Mestemaker as an NFL draft prospect need their internet connections unplugged for an unspecified period of time.
Iowa State at Iowa
Ohio State-Texas or El Assico? Tough call in primetime.
Alabama at Kentucky
If last week is any indication, the Crimson Tide have a wild ride ahead of them this season. New Kentucky coach Will Stein – who should go by Willie – and his saucy Wildcats could send that journey careening in an intriguing direction with an upset in Lexington.