Blatant Homerism: Reasons for optimism about OU versus the Tide
Before the 2025 season started, I wrote down in ink the Oklahoma Sooners’ game on Nov. 15 as a loss. The Alabama Crimson Tide had the look of a team built to atone for what qualifies around Tuscaloosa as a disappointing campaign. Additionally, the Tide would want revenge against the Sooners a year later for squishing the Tide’s hopes to earn a bid to the College Football Playoff in 2024.
It still seems likely that Bama and second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer will send OU back to Norman with a loss. But it does seem a little less likely today than it did before the season kicked off.
Why should anyone be optimistic about the chances of OU knocking off the Tide on Saturday afternoon? Let’s discuss a few reasons.
The Tide are playing with a one-dimensional offense.
When you think of Alabama football, the program’s rich legacy of standout running backs is usually one of the first things that comes to mind. But this year’s team isn’t built like your typical Bama team, and it starts with an impotent rushing attack.
The counting stats tell a disheartening story for Tide fans. Bama is averaging just 3.5 yards per rush attempt through nine games. That ranks 120th in the country. The advanced stats don’t look any better: The Tide rank 109th in rushing success rate, while they’re modestly better in EPA per rush at No. 78. The return of supposed feature back Jam Miller hasn’t improved the situation, as he has gone over 46 yards just two times in the six games in which he has played this year.
Unfortunately, the Tide throw the ball almost as well as any team in the country with quarterback Ty Simpson at the controls. But their punchless running game opens the door for OU head coach and defensive coordinator Brent Venables to build a game plan around pressuring Simpson and containing Bama’s dynamic receiving duo of Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard.
Speaking of the ground game…
The Tide don’t stop the run exceedingly well, either. For example, they allowed more than seven yards per carry in a narrow win over Vanderbilt last month. The preceding week was only slightly better for the Bama D, with Georgia generating 6.9 yards per rush. Tennessee also churned out a healthy 5.8 yards per rushing attempt versus the Tide.
To be fair, the offensive rushing outputs against the Tide D in all three aforementioned contests were bolstered by a handful of explosive plays. The good news for the Sooners is that since Xavier Robinson has emerged in the second half of the season, he has shown himself capable of snapping off big gains on the ground.
Moreover, OU quarterback John Mateer ran the ball more effectively in the Sooners’ most recent game against Tennessee than he has since early in the season. He demonstrated more decisiveness versus the Volunteers, the lack of which seemed to limit his contributions in the ground game for a stretch.
Keep in mind that OU controlling possession with an efficient ground game means the dangerous Bama offense stays on the sidelines.
OU’s depth on defense offers a variety of schematic options.
Venables enjoyed an off week to cook up a plan to slow down the Bama O. It shouldn’t come as a shock if the D gets funky on Saturday.
Perhaps the most critical question dictating how Venables approaches this game: Can the Sooners control the line of scrimmage with three down linemen? The Sooners have rarely used a 3-3-3 alignment this season, for instance, but you could understand the temptation to bet on stopping Bama’s run game in that personnel grouping. Meanwhile, playing three high safeties would provide plenty of space for the Sooners to change the picture Simpson is seeing throughout the game.
OU certainly has the versatility to pull off a 3-3-3 look. On the DL, Gracen Halton could potentially shift to defensive end to help on the edges versus Bama’s heavier personnel groupings, and PJ Adebawore and Taylor Wein are holding up well versus the run this year when called upon. The linebackers have shown they can move around well enough to fulfill different roles, and it’s possible one of the defensive ends – Danny Okoye? – could drop into more of a stand-up OLB spot on the edge. Among the defensive backs, OU has a range of options to play the third safety, and a third cornerback could jump in at nickel.
OU has primarily played a four-man front this year, and it might seem foolhardy to move away from what has worked well so far. However, with the status of defensive end R Mason Thomas and interior defensive tackle Jayden Jackson up in the air, Venables could feel even more inclined to take a DL off the field and give Simpson and Bama’s offensive brain trust an unfamiliar look.
As I mentioned on the free episode of the podcast this week, I do see the Sooners falling short this weekend. The Tide have the most complete team OU has played this year, and it’s hard to trust that Mateer will play well enough to win given what we’ve seen from him post-September. The most likely outcome is a valiant showing from the OU defense in a losing effort.
However, OU can keep this matchup within striking distance. Bama has a 3-0 record in one-score games this season and has yet to lose the turnover battle in any of its 2025 contests. The Tide appear due to end up on the wrong end of turnover margin at some point this year, in other words, and the Sooners will have a shot to hand them their first close loss if the trend flips against them here.
Other Games on My Radar
Not an overly compelling slate.
Texas at Georgia
I don’t really get the growing optimism about the Longhorns’ chances of winning this game. If that makes me a hater, so be it.
TCU at BYU
Speaking of being a hater, I’m ready to get the Cougars up out of the paint.
Arkansas at LSU
The Razorbacks may win their first SEC game this weekend. The Tigers are teetering on the verge of folding.
Virginia at Duke
To be clear, I have no intention of watching this game. It matters a lot in the ACC race, though.