Blatant Homerism: Talking turnovers
When people preview matchups in football, you often hear some version of “Team X will win if it avoids turnovers” or “Team Y will need to cause some turnovers to have a chance at winning.”
In fact, I’d bet that most upsets in football hinge on winning the turnover battle. Even when gaining a turnover doesn’t result in points for a team, that team still benefits indirectly by guaranteeing that an opponent’s possession won’t produce points. To wit, college football stats wonk Bill Connelly of ESPN estimates every turnover shifts the final margin in a game roughly five points towards the team that gets the takeaway.
The funny thing about turnovers is that they’re kinda random. Teams recover 50% of the fumbles in their games on average, but that leaves plenty of room on either side of the line for variance. For example, of the 22 total fumbles in Virginia’s games this season, 16 have ended up in the possession of the Cavaliers. Defenses, meanwhile, typically turn about 20% of the passes they get their hands on into interceptions – again, however, plenty of space for variance.
Armed with that knowledge about the trends, we can get an idea if a team is enjoying good or bad fortune in the turnover department. (Connelly actually tracks it throughout the course of the season.) Prior to last week’s visit to Knoxville, Oklahoma had secured four turnovers and lost 10 on the season, giving OU a turnover margin of -6 through eight games. OU’s expected turnover margin was -3, meaning OU’s deficit with its actual turnover margin was -3. The Sooners gained three turnovers against Tennessee and gave the ball away twice, lowering the deficit slightly to -2.8 in the process.
OU’s opponent in two weeks, Alabama, is running hot on turnover luck: After eight games, the Crimson Tide have a turnover margin of +5.8 higher than expected. Missouri is roughly where it should be in terms of actual turnover margin versus expected, but LSU has a turnover margin roughly +5.2 above expectation.
Nothing says the turnover scales have to balance out for the Sooners and their opponents in the coming weeks. Just keep turnover luck in mind when considering how all of these teams have played to this point in the year.
On the subject of turnovers, Texas has given the ball away just one time during its latest four-game winning streak. The Longhorns have also generated six takeaways of their own in the same period. UT doesn’t owe all of its recent success to the favor of the turnover gods, but it certainly helps.
Interestingly, Texas’ turnover avoidance looks like the byproduct of a strategic decision by coach Steve Sarkisian.
The image above from PFF.com details the statistics of Texas quarterback Arch Manning on a game-by-game basis in 2025. The column circled in red shows his average depth of target (ADOT) on his passes in the last four contests. Note the disparity in ADOT between the last four games and the first five, and bear in mind the national median ADOT for starting QBs across the country is roughly nine yards.
Texas has all but abandoned intermediate and deep routes in its passing game in its last four matchups, in other words. Manning’s ADOT only approached the national median in Texas’ game against Mississippi State, which included a 17-point comeback in the fourth quarter in which the Longhorns had to start throwing down the field.
In fact, a significant share of Manning’s throws aren’t even crossing the line of scrimmage. As an example, Manning and UT receiver Ryan Wingo connected on a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play of the game last week versus Vanderbilt; Wingo actually caught the ball five yards behind the line on a quick pass into space, then ran 80 yards to the end zone. Of Manning’s 328 passing yards versus the Commodores, 175 came on throws pass catchers at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Sarkisian’s dramatic shift to a horizontal-heavy passing game in Texas’ last four contests has worked well in some respects. First, it enabled the Longhorns to leverage their personnel advantages on the perimeter versus Mississippi State and Vandy using screens and swing passes to Wingo et al. Second, loading up on high-percentage passes cuts down on the likelihood of your quarterback throwing the ball to the other team.
The downside of such a risk-averse strategy is that it only works in certain conditions. Spamming throws behind the line produced big passing yardage against the Bulldogs and Commodores because of personnel disparities. On the other hand, the best that could be said for UT’s wins over the Sooners and Wildcats is that the plan didn’t blow up the Longhorns’ opportunities to capitalize on their opponents’ offensive self-destruction and timely punt returns by Ryan Niblett.
With games remaining against Georgia and Texas A&M, two of the best all-around squads in the country, and an explosive Arkansas squad, UT will almost certainly have to open up its offense down the stretch.
Allen’s Kitchen Non-Confidential
I made a version of one of my favorite appetizers, choriqueso, for a Halloween block party this year. It was pretty well-received.
I won’t lie: I essentially followed the recipe laid out in the video above from barbeque YouTuber ArnieTex. I don’t dig chorizo that much, so I just substituted in some ground beef seasoned with McCormick’s Mexican Taco Truck blend. A couple pieces of advice:
Don’t just grab any cheese for this – make sure it melts well (e.g., monterey jack or pepperjack).
Definitely serve with small flour tortillas, not chips.
Counterintuitive, but be parsimonious with the amount of meat you use.
Consider adding some smoky seasoning – like this one from Quail & Hound Farms – if that floats your boat.
Enjoy.
Together We’re More: Gilbert “Choc” Charleston
Each month the Choctaw Nation - the title sponsor of Through the Keyhole - releases a video highlighting the lives of tribal members and how they impact their communities.
Gilbert “Choc” Charleston, a proud World War II veteran and citizen of the Choctaw Nation, has lived an extraordinary life marked by resilience, discipline, and deep commitment to his family, community, and country.