Blatant Homerism: 2026 March Madness Preview
A funny thing happened to college basketball in the last few years: It stopped sucking.
The quality of play in college hoops still pales in comparison to the NBA, and it always will. But the college game suffered through an especially brutal run in the last two-plus decades that went beyond the realities of what would be expected of 18-year-old kids playing organized basketball. The annual exodus of underclassmen leaving early for the pros – assuming they ever arrived in college in the first place – used to include scores of players who had little hope of getting selected in the NBA draft. For most of them, taking off to play overseas beat hanging around campus to collect loose change from boosters and possibly a degree in general studies.
Ultimately, it felt as though we were left to watch teams made up of raw freshmen and conglomerations of experienced upperclassmen who would be going pro in something besides sports. Today, however, freedom from the traditional restrictions on player movement between programs and the opportunity to score decent money from NIL deals makes college life more appealing to players who aren’t destined for NBA stardom. The aesthetics of the play on the floor have turned up a couple notches as a result.
That means the 2026 edition of March Madness is setting up as one of the more compelling tournaments in recent years for hoops junkies. It doesn’t hurt that a bumper crop of freshmen phenoms are passing through the college ranks this year, either.
Let’s enjoy it while it lasts.
If you think this year’s field is lacking in intriguing long shots, you’re not alone. Note that oddsmakers installed all of the 16 squads seeded one through four as double-digit favorites in round one. It’s setting up as a relatively ho-hum slate of games in the first two days, which is when the upstarts usually emerge.
We’re looking at a high likelihood of bangers after that, though. The truth is that everyone loves Cinderella on Thursday and Friday of the opening week, but we want heavyweight fights by the Sweet 16. We’ll start seeing some before that, with potential matchups like Kansas-St. John’s, Arkansas-Wisconsin, and Virginia-Tennessee looming in the second round.
Why does so much power seem to be consolidating at the top of the sport? The same factors that have boosted the quality of play overall are likely working in favor of the elite programs, too. The trade-off is fewer Florida Atlantics and George Masons and more competition among the powerhouses.
But if the strength at the upper echelons of the field is the headline of this year’s tournament, the aforementioned story of the vast number of ultra-talented freshmen on the scene right now should also land on page one.
The likely national player of the year happens to be a rookie on the team favored to win the national championship. Efficiency metrics would tell you that Duke freshman Cameron Boozer had a campaign for the ages, ringing up double-doubles almost every game in leading the Blue Devils to a 32-2 record to this point. Ironically, though, Boozer may not even be the best freshman in the class. Despite the controversies that followed him around Lawrence, Kansas’ Darryn Petersen’s flashes of brilliance this season have sparked talk he will go number one in the NBA draft this summer. If not Petersen, first-year forward AJ Dybantsa of BYU could hear his name called first. And have you seen what Arkansas freshman guard Darius Acuff can do? (Probably so, given that he put nearly 40 points on Oklahoma when the Razorbacks and Sooners met last week in the SEC tournament.)
It seems unlikely that any of the diaper dandies are going to Carmelo Anthony their teams to a deep run – Duke has enough firepower that Boozer doesn’t have to carry the Blue Devils – but it will be fun to see them try.
A couple distinctions to hand out before the action starts…
Most annoying: Mick Cronin
For a guy named Mick, Cronin sure whines a lot. The UCLA coach’s antics got old long ago. Unfortunately, the Bruins drew one of this year’s least deserving participants in Central Florida in the first round, so we’ll probably get a minimum of two games’ worth of this twerp.
Under the radar: Larry Johnson, McNeese State
No idea if this Larry Johnson is kin to the famous UNLV Runnin’ Rebel, but he’s a better scorer. Of all the players in this year’s field, the freshman ranks seventh in KenPom’s offensive rating – only trailing the likes of Boozer, Acuff, Labaron Philon of Alabama. Johnson helped spark the Cowboys’ 10-game winning streak down the stretch, but that may come to an when the 12 seed faces an equally hot Vanderbilt squad in round one.
Stay of execution: Hubert Davis
Although Davis is akin to royalty in Chapel Hill, you have to imagine patience is starting to run thin with him at North Carolina. The Tar Heels came close to winning a national title in Davis’ first year as head coach. Since then, however, UNC has left a lot of meat on the bone. An Injury-marred season for promising freshman Caleb Wilson earned Davis a reprieve in a year when his squad will likely bow out early from the big dance again. He needs to produce in 2027, though.
Something Funky for Hoops Junkies, Part One: Queens
We’re talking about the ASun conference champs in this case, not the college that’s part of the Oxford University systems. Even so, coach Grant Leonard’s style of play warrants study by the academic types. To call what the Royals do “defense optional” undersells just how little effort they put into getting stops. (Their ranking of 319th overall in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rating is easily the worst of any team in the tournament.) It seems to work thanks to some fantastic execution on the offensive end, where six Queens players average double figures in scoring. Count on that round one game against Purdue being the highest-scoring contest of the first two days.
Something Funky for Hoops Junkies, Part Two: Hawaii
The Rainbow Warriors take the completely opposite approach to Queens. Hawaii coach Eran Ganot deploys a unique “no help” defensive scheme that puts his defenders on islands (pun intended), forcing opponents to win one-on-one battles. Just 38.3% of the field goals scored against the Bows come off of assists, the third-lowest rate in the nation. Unfortunately, that seems like asking for trouble against an athletic squad like Arkansas, which will square off versus Hawaii in the first round.
Upset alert: St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa
The Johnnies feel like a team ripe to get picked off early. They won a supremely weak version of the Big East by outmuscling opponents from game to game, embodied by the play of beefy post man Zuby Ejiofor. SJU’s deficiencies shooting the rock, however, leave coach Rick Pitino’s team prone to clunkers. That’s a formula for trouble in a tournament setting.
Consider this more of a pick against St. John’s, in other words, than one in favor of a solid UNI team.
Picks
East: No. 1 Duke over No. 2 Connecticut
Duke, UConn, Michigan State, Kansas, Louisville, UCLA – the draw in this region is box office, baby. Despite some injury worries for the Blue Devils, they have enough pieces around Boozer to avoid an early upset. Meanwhile, even though the Huskies’ recent form doesn’t inspire much confidence, they can probably slide through the bottom half of the region to the Elite Eight. In the end, Duke dispatches them with ease.
South: No. 2 Houston over No. 1 Florida
Once upon a time, you could count on Kelvin Sampson’s teams to stumble in March ahead of schedule. Notably, if an opponent threw a zone defense at him, his squad was cooked. He has now molded UH into the toughest of postseason matchups by finding a bunch of brawlers with skills to replace his old rosters of brawlers without them. The Cougars will get revenge for last year’s loss in the national championship game this time around.
West: No. 1 Arizona over No. 2 Purdue
If you don’t trust a team coached by Tommy Lloyd to make the Final Four, no one should blame you. The Wildcats still have a fantastic, well-rounded roster that makes them a legitimate threat to win the whole thing. Speaking of title contenders, you could make a strong case that No. 2 seed Purdue, which has played extraordinarily well away from home this year, is one of the leaders. The Boilermakers should take down a Gonzaga team that is capped by the status of forward Braden Huff. Ultimately, Zona’s frontcourt will prove too much for the Boilers.
Midwest: No. 6 Tennessee over No. 1 Michigan
The prospect of backing Rick Barnes to lead his team on a deep run should terrify you. But the Volunteers’ ability to clean up on the glass creates a unique advantage in a tournament setting when shots are more likely to stop falling. Although UT didn’t finish the year particularly strong, the Vols do have a breakout candidate in 6-10 freshman Nate Ament. Expect Michigan’s offense to stall out at some point – possibly before the Wolverines even get this far.
Champ: Duke over Arizona
Yeah, I don’t like it, either.