Blatant Homerism: Sweet Sixteen preview
As I mentioned in last week’s March Madness preview, the big dance has grown much less hospitable to Cinderella. This year’s opening weekend of the NCAA tournament illustrated just how far college basketball’s playing field has tilted against the longshots. Power programs romped through the first four days of games – the only double-digit seed still playing belongs to Texas, the richest athletic department in the country.
Is the erosion of parity in college basketball killing the fun of what is traditionally the most entertaining event in all of sports? Watching High Point bomb away from three-point range in an upset of Wisconsin in the first round brought to mind tournament upstarts from the past. VCU’s 19-point comeback win over North Carolina had plenty of March magic to it. For every one of those in the first round, however, it seemed like we got five or six blowouts.
But as problems go, you don’t get much more first-world than complaining that basketball games don’t entertain you as much as they used to. Fortunately, the second round produced its fair share of bangers. Most importantly, the elevated level of play overall suggests there are some heavyweight fights in store for us in the next two weeks.
Here are a few thoughts on what we’ve seen so far and what is to come in the rest of the tournament. We’ll go region by region.
West
Top-seeded Arizona last week continued to look like one of the favorites to cut down the nets at the Final Four. You just can’t find any holes in the Wildcats, who play extremely efficient ball on both ends of the floor. Their length across the entire lineup makes them especially an especially difficult matchup for most teams.
That said, Zona’s path to Indianapolis still seems perilous. Arkansas makes for a scary underdog with seven consecutive wins to its credit. The Razorbacks on every possession will put the ball in the hands of the best individual player left in the tournament, freshman guard Darius Acuff, who has a stellar backcourt mate in fellow rookie Meleek Thomas. The issue for the Hogs is that when the Wildcats extend their defense to guard the perimeter, their frontline can neutralize bouncy Arkansas forward Trevon Brazile. An upset isn’t out of the question here, though.
Zona will almost certainly see Purdue in Saturday’s final. Boilermakers point guard Braden Smith is orchestrating a beautiful offense against a Texas team that has played inconsistent D this year. The Longhorns benefited from catching two teams in the first two rounds that never really recovered this season from losing star players, and their “Cinderella” run will come to an end on Thursday in San Jose.
Purdue is scorching at the moment, but Zona’s defense should provide just enough stops to get the Wildcats to Indianapolis.
South
Iowa’s upset of a wobbly Florida team in the round of 32 got the headlines, but the real story of this region so far has been No. 2 Houston’s dominance. To be fair, the Cougars didn’t face the toughest competition in their first two games. They still mauled both Idaho and Texas A&M by more than 30 points each, which is what you want to see in such a scenario.
Now, UH gets to play for a Final Four bid in the friendly confines of H-Town’s Toyota Center. Unlucky for Illinois, a team with enough offensive proficiency to win one of the other regions. Tournament play often rewards the stronger defensive teams, though, and that is UH in this case.
Speaking of which, while Iowa plays solid D, Nebraska is elite on that end of the floor. That probably gives the Cornhuskers an edge in their rubber match on Thursday night. Note, however, that Nebby won’t enjoy the same crowd advantage that it had in Oklahoma City in the opening rounds.
UH will crush whichever team it faces in the Elite Eight on Saturday.
East
Washington, D.C.’s Capital One Arena will play host to Duke-St. John’s and Michigan State-Connecticut on Friday night, with the winners meeting for a spot in the Final Four on Sunday. Best of luck to anyone looking for tickets to the games in our nation’s capital this weekend.
Setting aside the marquee names in this foursome, the vibe here seems very “good, but not good enough.” No. 1 Duke once looked like the prohibitive favorite to win the national championship this year, but the Blue Devils haven’t played sharp basketball in the last few weeks. They needed a dogged effort to secure a six-point win in round one over a Siena team that should have been severely outgunned, and they messed around with TCU for too long before they turned on the jets in the second half.
Sounds like a team begging to get upset, but which of the other three teams can pull it off? The Johnnies play rugged defense, which will make life tough on Jon Scheyer’s team, but this Duke team ranks first nationally in KenPom’s defensive rating. Rick Pitino is a good coach, but he’s probably not good enough to manufacture enough offense for the Red Storm. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils rebound well enough to neutralize the strength of both Sparty and UConn on the boards.
Unless health concerns catch up to Duke, that is your winner in the East region.
Midwest
Analytically, everything is telling us that Michigan is the best team in the country. But why doesn’t it feel that way?
Dusty May’s team is kinda boring. Clearly, the Wolverines play supremely efficient defense, especially inside the three-point arc. Teams just can’t get good shots off on the interior when they’re routinely staring down three players who are 6-9 or taller in Aday Mara, Yaxel Lendenborg and Morez Johnson.
Much like Arizona, though, Michigan is facing the kind of team on Friday that can blow up even the most elite defenses. Alabama’s run-and-gun chuckers don’t conform to traditional game scripts, and the risk with the Crimson Tide is that they will salt the earth from three-point range. May and his coaching staff will have a plan for slowing Bama down; meanwhile, Aden Holloway’s absence may prove too much for the Tide to overcome.
Another star’s status looms large over the other Sweet Sixteen matchup in the Midwest. Iowa State didn’t miss a beat with power forward Joshua Jefferson on the shelf against Tennessee State and Kentucky last week. Jefferson’s availability versus Tennessee on Friday night remains up in the air, though, and it seems doubtful he can play at full strength even if he is in the lineup. That sounds like trouble against the Volunteers, who crash the offensive boards in typical Rick Barnes style. We’ll go with the Vols in an upset here.
All things being equal, UT’s ability to get to the glass on offense won’t matter nearly as much against the Wolverines in the next round. Michigan advances to Indianapolis.
Together We’re More: Joey Green - Musician
Each month the Choctaw Nation - the title sponsor of Through the Keyhole - releases a video highlighting the lives of tribal members and how they impact their communities.
Joey Green is a singer-songwriter and country music artist whose journey through music has spanned more than two decades. A proud Texan and member of Choctaw Nation from the small town of Crowley, just south of Fort Worth, Joey crafts songs that bridge country, rock, soul, and blues, blending them into a sound that is entirely his own.