Blatant Homerism: Predicting the 2026 season for the Oklahoma Sooners
I guess the time has come for me to go on the record with my projection for the Oklahoma Sooners in 2026. We’ll get there, but let’s start by looking back at 2025.
There’s no use in trying to escape it: OU had an Iowa-ass season. Head coach and defensive coordinator Brent Venables got the Sooners playing hellacious defense, and they executed superbly on special teams (until they didn’t). Meanwhile, first-year offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle was working for most of the year with a ramshackle group of blockers, a MASH unit at running back, a converted linebacker at tight end and a banged-up quarterback. It produced Hawkeye-like results, but you can hardly blame all of that on him.
Importantly, though, the Sooners didn’t use a lot of smoke and mirrors to produce a pretty record. For every unlikely event that worked in OU’s favor – a defensive touchdown, for example – an equally unlikely event set the team back. In fact, the Sooners probably ended up on the short end of the luck stick slightly more often than good breaks came their way.
OU won 10 games the ugly way last year, but 10 wins accurately reflected what the team was. Was it elegant football? Not at all, and the lack of offensive punch meant OU was never a threat to turn its invite to the College Football Playoff into a deep postseason run. We’re talking about a squad that was more top 15 than top five. They played a style borne of necessity.
Looking ahead, OU’s schedule projects even tougher this year. The Sooners can’t run back the ‘25 blueprint in 2026 and hope to get the same win-loss results. The good news is that they clearly don’t intend to.
OU’s brain trust took last year’s offensive shortcomings to heart when shaping the 2026 roster. The Sooners retained:
Their starting quarterback;
One of the most productive receivers in the SEC;
Three young offensive linemen who demonstrated significant progress when pressed into action in ‘25; and
A veteran center with a legitimate shot to play his way into the next NFL draft.
More importantly, the coaching staff and front office zeroed in on overhauling areas of deficiency.
It’s possible, for instance, that no single position group in college football got a bigger glow-up than OU’s tight end room. Three strong additions from the transfer portal in ex-Florida Gator Hayden Hansen, Rocky Beers from Colorado State, and Jack Van Dorselaer from Tennessee are replacing a group in which the best of the bunch was a converted LB who played more like a slot receiver.
Meanwhile, freshman Jonathan Hatton, who looks like the most talented running back to join OU’s roster in a decade, will jump into the backfield mix with another CSU transfer, Lloyd Avant, and two holdovers in Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson. Even though I’m not expecting a star turn from new offensive tackle E’Marion Harris, I can’t argue with the wisdom of filling OU’s fifth OL spot with a transfer who played roughly 1,500 snaps at Arkansas in the last two seasons. The combination of transfers Trell Harris from Virginia and Parker Livingstone from Texas also should surpass the contributions made in ‘25 by Deion Burks, Javonnie Gibson and Keontez Lewis as the Sooners’ secondary options at receiver.
All of the changes should help round out an offense that skewed ridiculously towards the passing game last season. To that end, Venables elevated respected tactician Kevin Wilson from an analyst role to assistant head coach for offense in move intended to help Arbuckle jumpstart the anemic ground attack.
Get the conventional running game going, and it should alleviate at least some of the concerns about quarterback John Mateer’s up-and-down track record in his one season at OU. Mateer earned skepticism about his decisions on the field, and his throwing mechanics fell apart often enough to become a legitimate problem over the course of last season. The reality, however, is that the effectiveness of OU’s offense rested almost entirely on his shoulders in ‘25. Shifting some of that load to his partners in the backfield will ease the pressure on Mateer to keep the O on track – assuming Mateer himself accepts that role.
On paper, the biggest concern I actually have with the ‘26 Sooners is replacing Gracen Halton, R Mason Thomas, Damonic Williams and Marvin Jones Jr. on the defensive line. I feel fine about the individual players who remain from last year, including defensive tackles David Stone and Jayden Jackson and edge Taylor Wein. Unfortunately, OU doesn’t have as many of those proven commodities as it did a year ago on a DL that formed the backbone of a successful squad.
However, I’ll bet Venables and DL coach Todd Bates can mitigate the impact of those losses up front. That should put OU’s defense in position to keep pace with the unit that ranked fourth overall in Defensive SP+ in ‘25.
Overall, this sounds like a team built to improve from last season when the Sooners won 10 games. On the other hand, the people in Las Vegas who make a living being right about this kind of thing say OU is most likely to win around seven or eight games in ‘26. I put a lot of stock in their projections, so why cling to any hope that this year’s team will surprise again?
OU’s sadistic schedule is playing a big part in tempering expectations. Road games versus Michigan, Georgia and Florida sound brutal. Playing Texas A&M and Ole Miss, even in Norman, doesn’t seem like much fun. Not to mention, the Red River Shootout is always looming, and Texas has worked the Sooners in their grudge match two years in a row.
That kind of grind over the course of a season certainly puts the risk of crippling attrition in play. I suspect that will be the main culprit if OU puts up a 6-6 or 7-5 record.
But…
OU’s ascent on defense in the past four seasons has matched what was expected when Venables was hired…
The additions on the other side of the ball reflect a thoughtful approach to building a more potent and balanced offense...
This team will be better than any other in Venables’ tenure. Let’s ride the wave.
Prediction: 10-2. SEC runner-up. A win or three in the College Football Playoff.